Recent forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a mostly cloudy pattern over Guangzhou on September 6 with scattered showers or thunderstorms possible, particularly in the afternoon. This setup favors maximum temperatures near 31–33 °C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities. High humidity, light northerly winds, and cloud cover are expected to limit surface heating compared with the seasonal average high of 32.7 °C, while any breaks in cloudiness or delayed precipitation could allow brief spikes toward 33 °C. Model consensus shows modest spread in peak values depending on exact timing and intensity of convection, creating the narrow trading range around these outcomes. Updated short-range guidance and local observations over the next 48 hours will be the key inputs for refining the highest temperature.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on September 6?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on September 6?
32°C 31%
31°C 23%
33°C 21%
30°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
26°C or below
2%
27°C
2%
28°C
4%
29°C
8%
30°C
14%
31°C
23%
32°C
31%
33°C
21%
34°C
6%
35°C
2%
36°C or higher
1%
32°C 31%
31°C 23%
33°C 21%
30°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
26°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C
$0 Vol.
2%
28°C
$0 Vol.
4%
29°C
$0 Vol.
8%
30°C
$20 Vol.
14%
31°C
$10 Vol.
23%
32°C
$100 Vol.
31%
33°C
$138 Vol.
21%
34°C
$314 Vol.
6%
35°C
$0 Vol.
2%
36°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a mostly cloudy pattern over Guangzhou on September 6 with scattered showers or thunderstorms possible, particularly in the afternoon. This setup favors maximum temperatures near 31–33 °C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities. High humidity, light northerly winds, and cloud cover are expected to limit surface heating compared with the seasonal average high of 32.7 °C, while any breaks in cloudiness or delayed precipitation could allow brief spikes toward 33 °C. Model consensus shows modest spread in peak values depending on exact timing and intensity of convection, creating the narrow trading range around these outcomes. Updated short-range guidance and local observations over the next 48 hours will be the key inputs for refining the highest temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$582End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a mostly cloudy pattern over Guangzhou on September 6 with scattered showers or thunderstorms possible, particularly in the afternoon. This setup favors maximum temperatures near 31–33 °C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities. High humidity, light northerly winds, and cloud cover are expected to limit surface heating compared with the seasonal average high of 32.7 °C, while any breaks in cloudiness or delayed precipitation could allow brief spikes toward 33 °C. Model consensus shows modest spread in peak values depending on exact timing and intensity of convection, creating the narrow trading range around these outcomes. Updated short-range guidance and local observations over the next 48 hours will be the key inputs for refining the highest temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$582End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a mostly cloudy pattern over Guangzhou on September 6 with scattered showers or thunderstorms possible, particularly in the afternoon. This setup favors maximum temperatures near 31–33 °C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities. High humidity, light northerly winds, and cloud cover are expected to limit surface heating compared with the seasonal average high of 32.7 °C, while any breaks in cloudiness or delayed precipitation could allow brief spikes toward 33 °C. Model consensus shows modest spread in peak values depending on exact timing and intensity of convection, creating the narrow trading range around these outcomes. Updated short-range guidance and local observations over the next 48 hours will be the key inputs for refining the highest temperature.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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