Recent European model consensus, including GFS and ECMWF runs, points to a stable high-pressure ridge over northern Italy delivering clear skies and light winds for Milan on September 4, supporting maximum temperatures of 32–34 °C. These conditions favor strong daytime heating under September climatology, where average highs reach the low 20s °C but recent warm anomalies have pushed readings several degrees above normal. Forecast spreads remain modest, with limited disagreement on boundary-layer mixing and no significant moisture or frontal intrusions expected to moderate peaks. Traders appear to weight the 32 °C and 33 °C outcomes most heavily given this tight clustering, though minor shifts in model initialization or local urban heat effects could still alter the final maximum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on September 4?
Highest temperature in Milan on September 4?
32°C 40%
33°C 38%
31°C 14%
34°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
1%
30°C
3%
31°C
11%
32°C
40%
33°C
38%
34°C
12%
35°C
1%
36°C
3%
37°C or higher
3%
32°C 40%
33°C 38%
31°C 14%
34°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
27°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
28°C
$0 Vol.
3%
29°C
$0 Vol.
1%
30°C
$0 Vol.
3%
31°C
$275 Vol.
11%
32°C
$357 Vol.
40%
33°C
$364 Vol.
38%
34°C
$162 Vol.
12%
35°C
$30 Vol.
1%
36°C
$0 Vol.
3%
37°C or higher
$0 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent European model consensus, including GFS and ECMWF runs, points to a stable high-pressure ridge over northern Italy delivering clear skies and light winds for Milan on September 4, supporting maximum temperatures of 32–34 °C. These conditions favor strong daytime heating under September climatology, where average highs reach the low 20s °C but recent warm anomalies have pushed readings several degrees above normal. Forecast spreads remain modest, with limited disagreement on boundary-layer mixing and no significant moisture or frontal intrusions expected to moderate peaks. Traders appear to weight the 32 °C and 33 °C outcomes most heavily given this tight clustering, though minor shifts in model initialization or local urban heat effects could still alter the final maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,186End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent European model consensus, including GFS and ECMWF runs, points to a stable high-pressure ridge over northern Italy delivering clear skies and light winds for Milan on September 4, supporting maximum temperatures of 32–34 °C. These conditions favor strong daytime heating under September climatology, where average highs reach the low 20s °C but recent warm anomalies have pushed readings several degrees above normal. Forecast spreads remain modest, with limited disagreement on boundary-layer mixing and no significant moisture or frontal intrusions expected to moderate peaks. Traders appear to weight the 32 °C and 33 °C outcomes most heavily given this tight clustering, though minor shifts in model initialization or local urban heat effects could still alter the final maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,186End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent European model consensus, including GFS and ECMWF runs, points to a stable high-pressure ridge over northern Italy delivering clear skies and light winds for Milan on September 4, supporting maximum temperatures of 32–34 °C. These conditions favor strong daytime heating under September climatology, where average highs reach the low 20s °C but recent warm anomalies have pushed readings several degrees above normal. Forecast spreads remain modest, with limited disagreement on boundary-layer mixing and no significant moisture or frontal intrusions expected to moderate peaks. Traders appear to weight the 32 °C and 33 °C outcomes most heavily given this tight clustering, though minor shifts in model initialization or local urban heat effects could still alter the final maximum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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