Recent model consensus and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance point to a highest temperature of 22–24 °C in Mexico City on September 6, with widespread cloud cover, showers, and southeasterly flow limiting daytime heating. These conditions align with the closely matched 25 % market-implied odds for each of those three outcomes. Afternoon convection tied to tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific is expected to cap peaks near 23–25 °C in drier model runs, while heavier rain scenarios keep readings closer to 22 °C. Historical September averages hover near 23 °C, but the current setup features above-normal humidity and reduced solar insolation. Traders are watching the next 48-hour forecast updates from SMN and global models for any shifts in timing or intensity of precipitation that could alter the daily maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on September 6?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 6?
24°C 37%
25°C 31%
23°C 23%
26°C or higher 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
16°C or below
4%
17°C
4%
18°C
4%
19°C
4%
20°C
4%
21°C
4%
22°C
10%
23°C
23%
24°C
37%
25°C
31%
26°C or higher
17%
24°C 37%
25°C 31%
23°C 23%
26°C or higher 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
17°C
$0 Vol.
4%
18°C
$0 Vol.
4%
19°C
$0 Vol.
4%
20°C
$0 Vol.
4%
21°C
$0 Vol.
4%
22°C
$40 Vol.
10%
23°C
$62 Vol.
23%
24°C
$0 Vol.
37%
25°C
$53 Vol.
31%
26°C or higher
$111 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance point to a highest temperature of 22–24 °C in Mexico City on September 6, with widespread cloud cover, showers, and southeasterly flow limiting daytime heating. These conditions align with the closely matched 25 % market-implied odds for each of those three outcomes. Afternoon convection tied to tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific is expected to cap peaks near 23–25 °C in drier model runs, while heavier rain scenarios keep readings closer to 22 °C. Historical September averages hover near 23 °C, but the current setup features above-normal humidity and reduced solar insolation. Traders are watching the next 48-hour forecast updates from SMN and global models for any shifts in timing or intensity of precipitation that could alter the daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$266End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance point to a highest temperature of 22–24 °C in Mexico City on September 6, with widespread cloud cover, showers, and southeasterly flow limiting daytime heating. These conditions align with the closely matched 25 % market-implied odds for each of those three outcomes. Afternoon convection tied to tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific is expected to cap peaks near 23–25 °C in drier model runs, while heavier rain scenarios keep readings closer to 22 °C. Historical September averages hover near 23 °C, but the current setup features above-normal humidity and reduced solar insolation. Traders are watching the next 48-hour forecast updates from SMN and global models for any shifts in timing or intensity of precipitation that could alter the daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$266End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance point to a highest temperature of 22–24 °C in Mexico City on September 6, with widespread cloud cover, showers, and southeasterly flow limiting daytime heating. These conditions align with the closely matched 25 % market-implied odds for each of those three outcomes. Afternoon convection tied to tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific is expected to cap peaks near 23–25 °C in drier model runs, while heavier rain scenarios keep readings closer to 22 °C. Historical September averages hover near 23 °C, but the current setup features above-normal humidity and reduced solar insolation. Traders are watching the next 48-hour forecast updates from SMN and global models for any shifts in timing or intensity of precipitation that could alter the daily maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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