Recent official forecasts from sources including the German Weather Service and global models indicate mostly clear skies and light westerly winds over Munich on September 4, supporting daytime maximum temperatures in the upper 20s °C under stable high-pressure conditions. These conditions favor strong solar heating with minimal cloud interference or precipitation, aligning with the market’s strong implied probability for a 29–30 °C high. Historical September 4 records show a 30.9 °C peak, while recent years have reached 28–29 °C, providing context for trader positioning. Updated model consensus and the absence of cooling fronts in the latest runs reinforce expectations near these thresholds ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on September 4?
Highest temperature in Munich on September 4?
30°C 59%
29°C 34%
31°C 10%
28°C 3%
NEW
$16,644 Vol.
NEW
$16,644 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
3%
29°C
34%
30°C
59%
31°C
10%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
<1%
30°C 59%
29°C 34%
31°C 10%
28°C 3%
NEW
$16,644 Vol.
NEW
$16,644 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
23°C or below
$698 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,298 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$406 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$404 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$327 Vol.
2%
28°C
$1,392 Vol.
3%
29°C
$4,177 Vol.
34%
30°C
$4,033 Vol.
59%
31°C
$2,364 Vol.
10%
32°C
$956 Vol.
1%
33°C or higher
$590 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including the German Weather Service and global models indicate mostly clear skies and light westerly winds over Munich on September 4, supporting daytime maximum temperatures in the upper 20s °C under stable high-pressure conditions. These conditions favor strong solar heating with minimal cloud interference or precipitation, aligning with the market’s strong implied probability for a 29–30 °C high. Historical September 4 records show a 30.9 °C peak, while recent years have reached 28–29 °C, providing context for trader positioning. Updated model consensus and the absence of cooling fronts in the latest runs reinforce expectations near these thresholds ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$16,644End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including the German Weather Service and global models indicate mostly clear skies and light westerly winds over Munich on September 4, supporting daytime maximum temperatures in the upper 20s °C under stable high-pressure conditions. These conditions favor strong solar heating with minimal cloud interference or precipitation, aligning with the market’s strong implied probability for a 29–30 °C high. Historical September 4 records show a 30.9 °C peak, while recent years have reached 28–29 °C, providing context for trader positioning. Updated model consensus and the absence of cooling fronts in the latest runs reinforce expectations near these thresholds ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,644End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from sources including the German Weather Service and global models indicate mostly clear skies and light westerly winds over Munich on September 4, supporting daytime maximum temperatures in the upper 20s °C under stable high-pressure conditions. These conditions favor strong solar heating with minimal cloud interference or precipitation, aligning with the market’s strong implied probability for a 29–30 °C high. Historical September 4 records show a 30.9 °C peak, while recent years have reached 28–29 °C, providing context for trader positioning. Updated model consensus and the absence of cooling fronts in the latest runs reinforce expectations near these thresholds ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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