Recent numerical weather model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light west-southwest winds, supporting a minimum temperature near 15–17 °C for Munich on September 4. This aligns with the closely bunched market-implied odds around those values, as the mild airmass and dew points near 11–13 °C limit further cooling despite clear conditions. Historical September 4 averages near 12 °C provide context, but the current synoptic setup favors milder readings. Key variables differentiating 14 °C versus 16–17 °C outcomes include minor differences in cloud timing, wind speeds, and boundary-layer mixing; updated model runs overnight will clarify the precise minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Munich on September 4?
17°C 57%
15°C 49%
12°C or below 49%
16°C 43%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
49%
13°C
15%
14°C
38%
15°C
49%
16°C
43%
17°C
57%
18°C
21%
19°C
15%
20°C
8%
21°C
3%
22°C or higher
7%
17°C 57%
15°C 49%
12°C or below 49%
16°C 43%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Vol.
49%
13°C
$0 Vol.
15%
14°C
$0 Vol.
38%
15°C
$0 Vol.
49%
16°C
$0 Vol.
43%
17°C
$0 Vol.
57%
18°C
$0 Vol.
21%
19°C
$0 Vol.
15%
20°C
$0 Vol.
8%
21°C
$0 Vol.
3%
22°C or higher
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light west-southwest winds, supporting a minimum temperature near 15–17 °C for Munich on September 4. This aligns with the closely bunched market-implied odds around those values, as the mild airmass and dew points near 11–13 °C limit further cooling despite clear conditions. Historical September 4 averages near 12 °C provide context, but the current synoptic setup favors milder readings. Key variables differentiating 14 °C versus 16–17 °C outcomes include minor differences in cloud timing, wind speeds, and boundary-layer mixing; updated model runs overnight will clarify the precise minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light west-southwest winds, supporting a minimum temperature near 15–17 °C for Munich on September 4. This aligns with the closely bunched market-implied odds around those values, as the mild airmass and dew points near 11–13 °C limit further cooling despite clear conditions. Historical September 4 averages near 12 °C provide context, but the current synoptic setup favors milder readings. Key variables differentiating 14 °C versus 16–17 °C outcomes include minor differences in cloud timing, wind speeds, and boundary-layer mixing; updated model runs overnight will clarify the precise minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light west-southwest winds, supporting a minimum temperature near 15–17 °C for Munich on September 4. This aligns with the closely bunched market-implied odds around those values, as the mild airmass and dew points near 11–13 °C limit further cooling despite clear conditions. Historical September 4 averages near 12 °C provide context, but the current synoptic setup favors milder readings. Key variables differentiating 14 °C versus 16–17 °C outcomes include minor differences in cloud timing, wind speeds, and boundary-layer mixing; updated model runs overnight will clarify the precise minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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