Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a post-frontal high-pressure ridge over the Northeast, with northerly flow advecting cooler, drier air into the NYC area by September 5. This setup favors mostly sunny skies and daytime highs clustering in the upper 70s to low 80s, consistent with the market’s leading 80-81 °F bin. Earlier in the week, southwesterly flow and higher dew points supported mid-80s readings before a cold front moderated temperatures. Model spread remains modest, centered on 78–81 °F, though minor timing differences in the ridge’s arrival or residual cloud cover could shift the daily maximum by a degree or two. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus forecast while discounting outlier warmer scenarios given the established northerly steering pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on September 5?
Highest temperature in NYC on September 5?
80-81°F 34%
76-77°F 22%
78-79°F 21%
84-85°F 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
69°F or below
1%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
9%
74-75°F
6%
76-77°F
22%
78-79°F
21%
80-81°F
34%
82-83°F
17%
84-85°F
20%
86-87°F
19%
88°F or higher
9%
80-81°F 34%
76-77°F 22%
78-79°F 21%
84-85°F 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
69°F or below
$0 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
2%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
9%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
6%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
22%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
21%
80-81°F
$229 Vol.
34%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
17%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
20%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
19%
88°F or higher
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a post-frontal high-pressure ridge over the Northeast, with northerly flow advecting cooler, drier air into the NYC area by September 5. This setup favors mostly sunny skies and daytime highs clustering in the upper 70s to low 80s, consistent with the market’s leading 80-81 °F bin. Earlier in the week, southwesterly flow and higher dew points supported mid-80s readings before a cold front moderated temperatures. Model spread remains modest, centered on 78–81 °F, though minor timing differences in the ridge’s arrival or residual cloud cover could shift the daily maximum by a degree or two. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus forecast while discounting outlier warmer scenarios given the established northerly steering pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$229End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a post-frontal high-pressure ridge over the Northeast, with northerly flow advecting cooler, drier air into the NYC area by September 5. This setup favors mostly sunny skies and daytime highs clustering in the upper 70s to low 80s, consistent with the market’s leading 80-81 °F bin. Earlier in the week, southwesterly flow and higher dew points supported mid-80s readings before a cold front moderated temperatures. Model spread remains modest, centered on 78–81 °F, though minor timing differences in the ridge’s arrival or residual cloud cover could shift the daily maximum by a degree or two. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus forecast while discounting outlier warmer scenarios given the established northerly steering pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$229End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a post-frontal high-pressure ridge over the Northeast, with northerly flow advecting cooler, drier air into the NYC area by September 5. This setup favors mostly sunny skies and daytime highs clustering in the upper 70s to low 80s, consistent with the market’s leading 80-81 °F bin. Earlier in the week, southwesterly flow and higher dew points supported mid-80s readings before a cold front moderated temperatures. Model spread remains modest, centered on 78–81 °F, though minor timing differences in the ridge’s arrival or residual cloud cover could shift the daily maximum by a degree or two. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus forecast while discounting outlier warmer scenarios given the established northerly steering pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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