Latest model guidance from global and regional ensembles points to mostly clear to partly cloudy skies over Chengdu on September 3, supporting surface heating in the Sichuan Basin and producing afternoon highs clustered around 32–35 °C. Subtle differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and weak steering flow create the tight spread among 33 °C, 34 °C, and 35 °C outcomes, while the urban heat-island effect and typical early-September climatology (historical highs near 29–31 °C) keep higher values (36 °C+) at low implied probability. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and international centers expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the market-implied distribution before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 3?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 3?
34°C 37%
33°C 32%
37°C or higher 15%
35°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
27°C or below
2%
28°C
<1%
29°C
4%
30°C
5%
31°C
9%
32°C
12%
33°C
21%
34°C
27%
35°C
12%
36°C
8%
37°C or higher
15%
34°C 37%
33°C 32%
37°C or higher 15%
35°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
27°C or below
$10 Vol.
2%
28°C
$137 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$5 Vol.
4%
30°C
$16 Vol.
5%
31°C
$30 Vol.
9%
32°C
$0 Vol.
12%
33°C
$9 Vol.
21%
34°C
$14 Vol.
27%
35°C
$7 Vol.
12%
36°C
$10 Vol.
8%
37°C or higher
$5 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest model guidance from global and regional ensembles points to mostly clear to partly cloudy skies over Chengdu on September 3, supporting surface heating in the Sichuan Basin and producing afternoon highs clustered around 32–35 °C. Subtle differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and weak steering flow create the tight spread among 33 °C, 34 °C, and 35 °C outcomes, while the urban heat-island effect and typical early-September climatology (historical highs near 29–31 °C) keep higher values (36 °C+) at low implied probability. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and international centers expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the market-implied distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$243End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest model guidance from global and regional ensembles points to mostly clear to partly cloudy skies over Chengdu on September 3, supporting surface heating in the Sichuan Basin and producing afternoon highs clustered around 32–35 °C. Subtle differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and weak steering flow create the tight spread among 33 °C, 34 °C, and 35 °C outcomes, while the urban heat-island effect and typical early-September climatology (historical highs near 29–31 °C) keep higher values (36 °C+) at low implied probability. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and international centers expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the market-implied distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$243End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest model guidance from global and regional ensembles points to mostly clear to partly cloudy skies over Chengdu on September 3, supporting surface heating in the Sichuan Basin and producing afternoon highs clustered around 32–35 °C. Subtle differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and weak steering flow create the tight spread among 33 °C, 34 °C, and 35 °C outcomes, while the urban heat-island effect and typical early-September climatology (historical highs near 29–31 °C) keep higher values (36 °C+) at low implied probability. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and international centers expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the market-implied distribution before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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