Current forecast models from sources including GFS and European guidance indicate Munich's September 3 minimum will likely fall between 14–16°C under partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and dry conditions near the long-term average low of 12°C. Trader consensus favoring 11°C or below at 42.5% implied probability reflects model uncertainty around radiational cooling on clearer nights and typical ensemble spread for early-September boundary-layer temperatures. Recent stable high-pressure patterns and absence of incoming frontal systems have kept probabilities anchored near these levels, with limited shifts in the past 48 hours as new runs confirm modest overnight drops without extreme cold advection.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Munich on September 3?
14°C 46%
11°C or below 44%
13°C 30%
21°C or higher 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
11°C or below
44%
12°C
23%
13°C
30%
14°C
46%
15°C
22%
16°C
9%
17°C
15%
18°C
15%
19°C
4%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
28%
14°C 46%
11°C or below 44%
13°C 30%
21°C or higher 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
11°C or below
$26 Vol.
44%
12°C
$0 Vol.
23%
13°C
$0 Vol.
30%
14°C
$0 Vol.
46%
15°C
$0 Vol.
22%
16°C
$20 Vol.
9%
17°C
$100 Vol.
15%
18°C
$0 Vol.
15%
19°C
$0 Vol.
4%
20°C
$0 Vol.
8%
21°C or higher
$0 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including GFS and European guidance indicate Munich's September 3 minimum will likely fall between 14–16°C under partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and dry conditions near the long-term average low of 12°C. Trader consensus favoring 11°C or below at 42.5% implied probability reflects model uncertainty around radiational cooling on clearer nights and typical ensemble spread for early-September boundary-layer temperatures. Recent stable high-pressure patterns and absence of incoming frontal systems have kept probabilities anchored near these levels, with limited shifts in the past 48 hours as new runs confirm modest overnight drops without extreme cold advection.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$146End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including GFS and European guidance indicate Munich's September 3 minimum will likely fall between 14–16°C under partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and dry conditions near the long-term average low of 12°C. Trader consensus favoring 11°C or below at 42.5% implied probability reflects model uncertainty around radiational cooling on clearer nights and typical ensemble spread for early-September boundary-layer temperatures. Recent stable high-pressure patterns and absence of incoming frontal systems have kept probabilities anchored near these levels, with limited shifts in the past 48 hours as new runs confirm modest overnight drops without extreme cold advection.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$146End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources including GFS and European guidance indicate Munich's September 3 minimum will likely fall between 14–16°C under partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and dry conditions near the long-term average low of 12°C. Trader consensus favoring 11°C or below at 42.5% implied probability reflects model uncertainty around radiational cooling on clearer nights and typical ensemble spread for early-September boundary-layer temperatures. Recent stable high-pressure patterns and absence of incoming frontal systems have kept probabilities anchored near these levels, with limited shifts in the past 48 hours as new runs confirm modest overnight drops without extreme cold advection.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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