**Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF point to daytime maxima of 29–31°C in Panama City on September 5, aligning with the market’s clustering around 30–32°C.** In the tropical wet season, high humidity, trade-wind patterns, and afternoon convection typically cap temperatures near the long-term September average of about 31°C, while scattered thunderstorms can suppress peaks through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. A developing El Niño event, with equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures well above average and >90% probability of persistence through late 2026, is expected to reduce regional rainfall and may allow slightly clearer intervals that favor the upper end of the range. Short-range model consensus and limited day-to-day variability keep the 32°C outcome as the modal outcome, though any increase in organized convection or earlier sea-breeze onset could shift realized highs downward. Updated NHC and local IMHPA guidance ahead of the date will provide the next key inputs for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Panama City on September 5?
Highest temperature in Panama City on September 5?
32°C 36%
31°C 31%
29°C 17%
30°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
24°C or below
2%
25°C
2%
26°C
2%
27°C
4%
28°C
12%
29°C
17%
30°C
13%
31°C
31%
32°C
36%
33°C
7%
34°C or higher
6%
32°C 36%
31°C 31%
29°C 17%
30°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
24°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
25°C
$0 Vol.
2%
26°C
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C
$0 Vol.
4%
28°C
$0 Vol.
12%
29°C
$0 Vol.
17%
30°C
$17 Vol.
13%
31°C
$0 Vol.
31%
32°C
$10 Vol.
36%
33°C
$0 Vol.
7%
34°C or higher
$0 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF point to daytime maxima of 29–31°C in Panama City on September 5, aligning with the market’s clustering around 30–32°C.** In the tropical wet season, high humidity, trade-wind patterns, and afternoon convection typically cap temperatures near the long-term September average of about 31°C, while scattered thunderstorms can suppress peaks through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. A developing El Niño event, with equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures well above average and >90% probability of persistence through late 2026, is expected to reduce regional rainfall and may allow slightly clearer intervals that favor the upper end of the range. Short-range model consensus and limited day-to-day variability keep the 32°C outcome as the modal outcome, though any increase in organized convection or earlier sea-breeze onset could shift realized highs downward. Updated NHC and local IMHPA guidance ahead of the date will provide the next key inputs for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$27End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmgResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF point to daytime maxima of 29–31°C in Panama City on September 5, aligning with the market’s clustering around 30–32°C.** In the tropical wet season, high humidity, trade-wind patterns, and afternoon convection typically cap temperatures near the long-term September average of about 31°C, while scattered thunderstorms can suppress peaks through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. A developing El Niño event, with equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures well above average and >90% probability of persistence through late 2026, is expected to reduce regional rainfall and may allow slightly clearer intervals that favor the upper end of the range. Short-range model consensus and limited day-to-day variability keep the 32°C outcome as the modal outcome, though any increase in organized convection or earlier sea-breeze onset could shift realized highs downward. Updated NHC and local IMHPA guidance ahead of the date will provide the next key inputs for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$27End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmgResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF point to daytime maxima of 29–31°C in Panama City on September 5, aligning with the market’s clustering around 30–32°C.** In the tropical wet season, high humidity, trade-wind patterns, and afternoon convection typically cap temperatures near the long-term September average of about 31°C, while scattered thunderstorms can suppress peaks through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. A developing El Niño event, with equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures well above average and >90% probability of persistence through late 2026, is expected to reduce regional rainfall and may allow slightly clearer intervals that favor the upper end of the range. Short-range model consensus and limited day-to-day variability keep the 32°C outcome as the modal outcome, though any increase in organized convection or earlier sea-breeze onset could shift realized highs downward. Updated NHC and local IMHPA guidance ahead of the date will provide the next key inputs for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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