Persistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) activity is the dominant driver, with PAGASA forecasting 50–100 mm of rainfall and widespread thunderstorms over Metro Manila through September 6. These conditions produce extensive cloud cover, elevated humidity near 85–95%, and reduced solar insolation, limiting daytime heating and capping maximum temperatures. Official model guidance and recent observations indicate highs of 28–29 °C, consistent with the market’s emphasis on 29–31 °C outcomes. Historical September climatology shows average maxima near 30–31 °C, but the current wet pattern has suppressed values below that baseline. Forecasters note typical model spread of 1–2 °C tied to exact timing and intensity of convective cells, keeping implied probabilities clustered around the observed range while acknowledging potential for brief clearing that could allow a 30–31 °C spike.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 6?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 6?
30°C 37%
31°C 22%
29°C 15%
28°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
2%
26°C
4%
27°C
7%
28°C
15%
29°C
15%
30°C
37%
31°C
22%
32°C
8%
33°C or higher
2%
30°C 37%
31°C 22%
29°C 15%
28°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
23°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
24°C
$0 Vol.
2%
25°C
$0 Vol.
2%
26°C
$50 Vol.
4%
27°C
$143 Vol.
7%
28°C
$0 Vol.
15%
29°C
$0 Vol.
15%
30°C
$55 Vol.
37%
31°C
$20 Vol.
22%
32°C
$0 Vol.
8%
33°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) activity is the dominant driver, with PAGASA forecasting 50–100 mm of rainfall and widespread thunderstorms over Metro Manila through September 6. These conditions produce extensive cloud cover, elevated humidity near 85–95%, and reduced solar insolation, limiting daytime heating and capping maximum temperatures. Official model guidance and recent observations indicate highs of 28–29 °C, consistent with the market’s emphasis on 29–31 °C outcomes. Historical September climatology shows average maxima near 30–31 °C, but the current wet pattern has suppressed values below that baseline. Forecasters note typical model spread of 1–2 °C tied to exact timing and intensity of convective cells, keeping implied probabilities clustered around the observed range while acknowledging potential for brief clearing that could allow a 30–31 °C spike.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$268End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) activity is the dominant driver, with PAGASA forecasting 50–100 mm of rainfall and widespread thunderstorms over Metro Manila through September 6. These conditions produce extensive cloud cover, elevated humidity near 85–95%, and reduced solar insolation, limiting daytime heating and capping maximum temperatures. Official model guidance and recent observations indicate highs of 28–29 °C, consistent with the market’s emphasis on 29–31 °C outcomes. Historical September climatology shows average maxima near 30–31 °C, but the current wet pattern has suppressed values below that baseline. Forecasters note typical model spread of 1–2 °C tied to exact timing and intensity of convective cells, keeping implied probabilities clustered around the observed range while acknowledging potential for brief clearing that could allow a 30–31 °C spike.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$268End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) activity is the dominant driver, with PAGASA forecasting 50–100 mm of rainfall and widespread thunderstorms over Metro Manila through September 6. These conditions produce extensive cloud cover, elevated humidity near 85–95%, and reduced solar insolation, limiting daytime heating and capping maximum temperatures. Official model guidance and recent observations indicate highs of 28–29 °C, consistent with the market’s emphasis on 29–31 °C outcomes. Historical September climatology shows average maxima near 30–31 °C, but the current wet pattern has suppressed values below that baseline. Forecasters note typical model spread of 1–2 °C tied to exact timing and intensity of convective cells, keeping implied probabilities clustered around the observed range while acknowledging potential for brief clearing that could allow a 30–31 °C spike.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions