Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and Met Office indicate Tokyo’s overnight low on September 6 will most likely settle between 21–22 °C, aligning with the market’s heaviest volume on those two outcomes. Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain from a passing frontal system, and moderate northerly winds are limiting radiational cooling and keeping minimum temperatures near or slightly above the long-term September average of roughly 19–21 °C. Model consensus shows limited spread, with only modest upside risk if clearing occurs earlier than expected. Traders are therefore assigning the highest implied probabilities to 21 °C (49 %) and 22 °C (37 %), while lower probabilities reflect the smaller chance of readings dipping to 20 °C or rising to 23 °C. The market will resolve on official JMA observations once the calendar day ends in Japan.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 6?
21°C 50%
22°C 36%
20°C 11%
19°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
9%
20°C
11%
21°C
50%
22°C
36%
23°C
9%
24°C
6%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
21°C 50%
22°C 36%
20°C 11%
19°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$0 Vol.
1%
19°C
$0 Vol.
9%
20°C
$478 Vol.
11%
21°C
$146 Vol.
50%
22°C
$395 Vol.
36%
23°C
$0 Vol.
9%
24°C
$0 Vol.
6%
25°C
$0 Vol.
1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and Met Office indicate Tokyo’s overnight low on September 6 will most likely settle between 21–22 °C, aligning with the market’s heaviest volume on those two outcomes. Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain from a passing frontal system, and moderate northerly winds are limiting radiational cooling and keeping minimum temperatures near or slightly above the long-term September average of roughly 19–21 °C. Model consensus shows limited spread, with only modest upside risk if clearing occurs earlier than expected. Traders are therefore assigning the highest implied probabilities to 21 °C (49 %) and 22 °C (37 %), while lower probabilities reflect the smaller chance of readings dipping to 20 °C or rising to 23 °C. The market will resolve on official JMA observations once the calendar day ends in Japan.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,019End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and Met Office indicate Tokyo’s overnight low on September 6 will most likely settle between 21–22 °C, aligning with the market’s heaviest volume on those two outcomes. Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain from a passing frontal system, and moderate northerly winds are limiting radiational cooling and keeping minimum temperatures near or slightly above the long-term September average of roughly 19–21 °C. Model consensus shows limited spread, with only modest upside risk if clearing occurs earlier than expected. Traders are therefore assigning the highest implied probabilities to 21 °C (49 %) and 22 °C (37 %), while lower probabilities reflect the smaller chance of readings dipping to 20 °C or rising to 23 °C. The market will resolve on official JMA observations once the calendar day ends in Japan.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,019End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and Met Office indicate Tokyo’s overnight low on September 6 will most likely settle between 21–22 °C, aligning with the market’s heaviest volume on those two outcomes. Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain from a passing frontal system, and moderate northerly winds are limiting radiational cooling and keeping minimum temperatures near or slightly above the long-term September average of roughly 19–21 °C. Model consensus shows limited spread, with only modest upside risk if clearing occurs earlier than expected. Traders are therefore assigning the highest implied probabilities to 21 °C (49 %) and 22 °C (37 %), while lower probabilities reflect the smaller chance of readings dipping to 20 °C or rising to 23 °C. The market will resolve on official JMA observations once the calendar day ends in Japan.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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