High pressure systems and clear skies under a stable subtropical ridge are sustaining above-normal temperatures across central Spain, with southerly flow advecting warmer air into the Madrid basin. Official AEMET guidance and ensemble runs from GFS and ECMWF place the September 3 maximum near 37–39 °C, reflecting modest model spread in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing. Low humidity and light winds limit evaporative cooling, while the urban heat-island effect can add 1–2 °C locally during afternoon hours. With market-implied probabilities tightly clustered at 38 °C (48.5 %) and 39 °C (41.0 %), traders are pricing the narrow gap between the most likely ensemble members and the precise observation window used for resolution. Updated model cycles and AEMET’s midday briefing on September 2 remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 3?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 3?
38°C 49%
39°C 41%
37°C 8%
40°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
33°C or below
1%
34°C
1%
35°C
4%
36°C
3%
37°C
8%
38°C
49%
39°C
41%
40°C
7%
41°C
3%
42°C
1%
43°C or higher
<1%
38°C 49%
39°C 41%
37°C 8%
40°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
33°C or below
$5 Vol.
1%
34°C
$25 Vol.
1%
35°C
$5 Vol.
4%
36°C
$0 Vol.
3%
37°C
$10 Vol.
8%
38°C
$135 Vol.
49%
39°C
$92 Vol.
41%
40°C
$13 Vol.
7%
41°C
$10 Vol.
3%
42°C
$19 Vol.
1%
43°C or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.High pressure systems and clear skies under a stable subtropical ridge are sustaining above-normal temperatures across central Spain, with southerly flow advecting warmer air into the Madrid basin. Official AEMET guidance and ensemble runs from GFS and ECMWF place the September 3 maximum near 37–39 °C, reflecting modest model spread in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing. Low humidity and light winds limit evaporative cooling, while the urban heat-island effect can add 1–2 °C locally during afternoon hours. With market-implied probabilities tightly clustered at 38 °C (48.5 %) and 39 °C (41.0 %), traders are pricing the narrow gap between the most likely ensemble members and the precise observation window used for resolution. Updated model cycles and AEMET’s midday briefing on September 2 remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$319End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.High pressure systems and clear skies under a stable subtropical ridge are sustaining above-normal temperatures across central Spain, with southerly flow advecting warmer air into the Madrid basin. Official AEMET guidance and ensemble runs from GFS and ECMWF place the September 3 maximum near 37–39 °C, reflecting modest model spread in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing. Low humidity and light winds limit evaporative cooling, while the urban heat-island effect can add 1–2 °C locally during afternoon hours. With market-implied probabilities tightly clustered at 38 °C (48.5 %) and 39 °C (41.0 %), traders are pricing the narrow gap between the most likely ensemble members and the precise observation window used for resolution. Updated model cycles and AEMET’s midday briefing on September 2 remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$319End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...High pressure systems and clear skies under a stable subtropical ridge are sustaining above-normal temperatures across central Spain, with southerly flow advecting warmer air into the Madrid basin. Official AEMET guidance and ensemble runs from GFS and ECMWF place the September 3 maximum near 37–39 °C, reflecting modest model spread in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing. Low humidity and light winds limit evaporative cooling, while the urban heat-island effect can add 1–2 °C locally during afternoon hours. With market-implied probabilities tightly clustered at 38 °C (48.5 %) and 39 °C (41.0 %), traders are pricing the narrow gap between the most likely ensemble members and the precise observation window used for resolution. Updated model cycles and AEMET’s midday briefing on September 2 remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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