Current forecasts from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF indicate Madrid will reach a maximum near 36–37°C on September 7 under clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and stable high pressure typical of late summer. These conditions favor strong daytime heating with minimal cloud cover or moisture to moderate temperatures. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around this range, though small shifts in wind direction or timing of peak insolation could push readings to 38°C. Historical data places the September 7 record at 38.5°C, providing context for the narrow market spread between 37°C and 38°C outcomes. Traders will watch the next high-resolution model runs for any adjustments in the final 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 7?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 7?
37°C 51%
38°C 43%
36°C 11%
39°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
34°C or below
2%
35°C
5%
36°C
11%
37°C
51%
38°C
43%
39°C
9%
40°C
2%
41°C
2%
42°C
1%
43°C
1%
44°C or higher
1%
37°C 51%
38°C 43%
36°C 11%
39°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
34°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
35°C
$0 Vol.
5%
36°C
$0 Vol.
11%
37°C
$241 Vol.
51%
38°C
$41 Vol.
43%
39°C
$10 Vol.
9%
40°C
$0 Vol.
2%
41°C
$0 Vol.
2%
42°C
$0 Vol.
1%
43°C
$0 Vol.
1%
44°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF indicate Madrid will reach a maximum near 36–37°C on September 7 under clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and stable high pressure typical of late summer. These conditions favor strong daytime heating with minimal cloud cover or moisture to moderate temperatures. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around this range, though small shifts in wind direction or timing of peak insolation could push readings to 38°C. Historical data places the September 7 record at 38.5°C, providing context for the narrow market spread between 37°C and 38°C outcomes. Traders will watch the next high-resolution model runs for any adjustments in the final 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$292End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF indicate Madrid will reach a maximum near 36–37°C on September 7 under clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and stable high pressure typical of late summer. These conditions favor strong daytime heating with minimal cloud cover or moisture to moderate temperatures. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around this range, though small shifts in wind direction or timing of peak insolation could push readings to 38°C. Historical data places the September 7 record at 38.5°C, providing context for the narrow market spread between 37°C and 38°C outcomes. Traders will watch the next high-resolution model runs for any adjustments in the final 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$292End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF indicate Madrid will reach a maximum near 36–37°C on September 7 under clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and stable high pressure typical of late summer. These conditions favor strong daytime heating with minimal cloud cover or moisture to moderate temperatures. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around this range, though small shifts in wind direction or timing of peak insolation could push readings to 38°C. Historical data places the September 7 record at 38.5°C, providing context for the narrow market spread between 37°C and 38°C outcomes. Traders will watch the next high-resolution model runs for any adjustments in the final 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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