Recent forecast models from sources including the Hydrometeorological Center and international ensembles show Moscow temperatures rising from cooler early-week conditions near 14–18°C, driven by a shift to westerly to southwesterly flow and building high pressure that favors clearer skies and daytime warming. This positions 20–21°C as the most probable maximum for September 9, aligning with market-implied odds of 37% for 21°C and 22.5% for 20°C. Model consensus across runs indicates limited cloud cover and light winds, though small variations in timing of the ridge could nudge the peak by 1–2°C. Historical September averages near 17°C provide baseline context, with the current warming trend exceeding norms by midweek. Updated model outputs and official observations through September 8 will refine resolution probabilities ahead of the daily high measurement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on September 9?
Highest temperature in Moscow on September 9?
21°C 42%
20°C 22%
19°C 14%
22°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
14°C or below
2%
15°C
2%
16°C
3%
17°C
6%
18°C
6%
19°C
14%
20°C
22%
21°C
42%
22°C
7%
23°C
5%
24°C or higher
4%
21°C 42%
20°C 22%
19°C 14%
22°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
14°C or below
$125 Vol.
2%
15°C
$125 Vol.
2%
16°C
$63 Vol.
3%
17°C
$0 Vol.
6%
18°C
$0 Vol.
6%
19°C
$0 Vol.
14%
20°C
$0 Vol.
22%
21°C
$77 Vol.
42%
22°C
$124 Vol.
7%
23°C
$88 Vol.
5%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including the Hydrometeorological Center and international ensembles show Moscow temperatures rising from cooler early-week conditions near 14–18°C, driven by a shift to westerly to southwesterly flow and building high pressure that favors clearer skies and daytime warming. This positions 20–21°C as the most probable maximum for September 9, aligning with market-implied odds of 37% for 21°C and 22.5% for 20°C. Model consensus across runs indicates limited cloud cover and light winds, though small variations in timing of the ridge could nudge the peak by 1–2°C. Historical September averages near 17°C provide baseline context, with the current warming trend exceeding norms by midweek. Updated model outputs and official observations through September 8 will refine resolution probabilities ahead of the daily high measurement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$602End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including the Hydrometeorological Center and international ensembles show Moscow temperatures rising from cooler early-week conditions near 14–18°C, driven by a shift to westerly to southwesterly flow and building high pressure that favors clearer skies and daytime warming. This positions 20–21°C as the most probable maximum for September 9, aligning with market-implied odds of 37% for 21°C and 22.5% for 20°C. Model consensus across runs indicates limited cloud cover and light winds, though small variations in timing of the ridge could nudge the peak by 1–2°C. Historical September averages near 17°C provide baseline context, with the current warming trend exceeding norms by midweek. Updated model outputs and official observations through September 8 will refine resolution probabilities ahead of the daily high measurement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$602End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources including the Hydrometeorological Center and international ensembles show Moscow temperatures rising from cooler early-week conditions near 14–18°C, driven by a shift to westerly to southwesterly flow and building high pressure that favors clearer skies and daytime warming. This positions 20–21°C as the most probable maximum for September 9, aligning with market-implied odds of 37% for 21°C and 22.5% for 20°C. Model consensus across runs indicates limited cloud cover and light winds, though small variations in timing of the ridge could nudge the peak by 1–2°C. Historical September averages near 17°C provide baseline context, with the current warming trend exceeding norms by midweek. Updated model outputs and official observations through September 8 will refine resolution probabilities ahead of the daily high measurement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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