Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Dallas on September 9 points to a dominant high-pressure ridge sustaining sunny skies, light southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover, with forecast highs centered near 100–101 °F and heat indices exceeding 105 °F. This setup aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 100–101 °F bin, reflecting the tight clustering of deterministic and ensemble runs around that range. Recent days have featured comparable 100 °F maxima under similar thermodynamic conditions, and climatological data show September 9 averages near 91.5 °F with a 103 °F all-time record, underscoring how the current anomaly supports elevated but not extreme outcomes. Minor model spread leaves limited room for 102–103 °F if mixing or boundary-layer heating exceeds expectations, while the low probability assigned to sub-98 °F bins reflects the absence of any cooling mechanism in the short-term forecast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on September 9?
Highest temperature in Dallas on September 9?
100-101°F 56%
98-99°F 23%
96-97°F 15%
102-103°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
89°F or below
1%
90-91°F
7%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
8%
96-97°F
15%
98-99°F
23%
100-101°F
56%
102-103°F
12%
104-105°F
4%
106-107°F
7%
108°F or higher
7%
100-101°F 56%
98-99°F 23%
96-97°F 15%
102-103°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
89°F or below
$60 Vol.
1%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
7%
92-93°F
$5 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
8%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
15%
98-99°F
$1,526 Vol.
23%
100-101°F
$1,752 Vol.
56%
102-103°F
$0 Vol.
12%
104-105°F
$0 Vol.
4%
106-107°F
$0 Vol.
7%
108°F or higher
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Dallas on September 9 points to a dominant high-pressure ridge sustaining sunny skies, light southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover, with forecast highs centered near 100–101 °F and heat indices exceeding 105 °F. This setup aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 100–101 °F bin, reflecting the tight clustering of deterministic and ensemble runs around that range. Recent days have featured comparable 100 °F maxima under similar thermodynamic conditions, and climatological data show September 9 averages near 91.5 °F with a 103 °F all-time record, underscoring how the current anomaly supports elevated but not extreme outcomes. Minor model spread leaves limited room for 102–103 °F if mixing or boundary-layer heating exceeds expectations, while the low probability assigned to sub-98 °F bins reflects the absence of any cooling mechanism in the short-term forecast.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,343End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Dallas on September 9 points to a dominant high-pressure ridge sustaining sunny skies, light southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover, with forecast highs centered near 100–101 °F and heat indices exceeding 105 °F. This setup aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 100–101 °F bin, reflecting the tight clustering of deterministic and ensemble runs around that range. Recent days have featured comparable 100 °F maxima under similar thermodynamic conditions, and climatological data show September 9 averages near 91.5 °F with a 103 °F all-time record, underscoring how the current anomaly supports elevated but not extreme outcomes. Minor model spread leaves limited room for 102–103 °F if mixing or boundary-layer heating exceeds expectations, while the low probability assigned to sub-98 °F bins reflects the absence of any cooling mechanism in the short-term forecast.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,343End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Dallas on September 9 points to a dominant high-pressure ridge sustaining sunny skies, light southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover, with forecast highs centered near 100–101 °F and heat indices exceeding 105 °F. This setup aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 100–101 °F bin, reflecting the tight clustering of deterministic and ensemble runs around that range. Recent days have featured comparable 100 °F maxima under similar thermodynamic conditions, and climatological data show September 9 averages near 91.5 °F with a 103 °F all-time record, underscoring how the current anomaly supports elevated but not extreme outcomes. Minor model spread leaves limited room for 102–103 °F if mixing or boundary-layer heating exceeds expectations, while the low probability assigned to sub-98 °F bins reflects the absence of any cooling mechanism in the short-term forecast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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