National Weather Service issuances confirm Phoenix metro remained under Extreme Heat Warning for well over 10 days in August 2026, driven by persistent high-pressure patterns that produced afternoon highs of 110–117°F and overnight lows near 90°F. Multiple extensions through late August, including record-tying peaks, aligned with official criteria for major to extreme HeatRisk on the NWS scale. This outcome matches long-term trends of intensifying summer heat in the Southwest, where baseline temperatures already approach warning thresholds. While final NWS tallies leave little room for revision, minor adjustments in geographic boundaries or exact warning start times represent the only plausible variables that could theoretically shift counts, though none have materialized in post-event reviews.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Phoenix be under an Extreme Heat Warning for 10+ days in August 2026?
Will Phoenix be under an Extreme Heat Warning for 10+ days in August 2026?
>99% chance
$576 Vol.
$576 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
>99% chance
$576 Vol.
$576 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve "Yes" if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for a cumulative total of 10 or more calendar days during August 1–31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A calendar day counts if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for any portion of that day for the NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix). The total count of Extreme Heat Warning events for zone AZZ543 can be verified using Iowa Environmental Mesonet's NWS warning search tool at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/search.php, filtered to zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for the month of August.
Multiple warnings on the same day count as one day. Heat Advisories do not count.
In the event the NWS renders unavailable, resolution will be determined by observed daily high temperatures at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (station KPHX) as reported by NOAA's Climate Data Online (ncdc.noaa.gov) and any calendar day with an observed high of 110°F or above will count as a warning day for resolution purposes.National Weather Service issuances confirm Phoenix metro remained under Extreme Heat Warning for well over 10 days in August 2026, driven by persistent high-pressure patterns that produced afternoon highs of 110–117°F and overnight lows near 90°F. Multiple extensions through late August, including record-tying peaks, aligned with official criteria for major to extreme HeatRisk on the NWS scale. This outcome matches long-term trends of intensifying summer heat in the Southwest, where baseline temperatures already approach warning thresholds. While final NWS tallies leave little room for revision, minor adjustments in geographic boundaries or exact warning start times represent the only plausible variables that could theoretically shift counts, though none have materialized in post-event reviews.
This market will resolve "Yes" if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for a cumulative total of 10 or more calendar days during August 1–31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A calendar day counts if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for any portion of that day for the NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix). The total count of Extreme Heat Warning events for zone AZZ543 can be verified using Iowa Environmental Mesonet's NWS warning search tool at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/search.php, filtered to zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for the month of August.
Multiple warnings on the same day count as one day. Heat Advisories do not count.
In the event the NWS renders unavailable, resolution will be determined by observed daily high temperatures at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (station KPHX) as reported by NOAA's Climate Data Online (ncdc.noaa.gov) and any calendar day with an observed high of 110°F or above will count as a warning day for resolution purposes.
A calendar day counts if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for any portion of that day for the NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix). The total count of Extreme Heat Warning events for zone AZZ543 can be verified using Iowa Environmental Mesonet's NWS warning search tool at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/search.php, filtered to zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for the month of August.
Multiple warnings on the same day count as one day. Heat Advisories do not count.
In the event the NWS renders unavailable, resolution will be determined by observed daily high temperatures at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (station KPHX) as reported by NOAA's Climate Data Online (ncdc.noaa.gov) and any calendar day with an observed high of 110°F or above will count as a warning day for resolution purposes.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 3:12 PM ET
Volume
$576End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve "Yes" if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for a cumulative total of 10 or more calendar days during August 1–31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A calendar day counts if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for any portion of that day for the NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix). The total count of Extreme Heat Warning events for zone AZZ543 can be verified using Iowa Environmental Mesonet's NWS warning search tool at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/search.php, filtered to zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for the month of August.
Multiple warnings on the same day count as one day. Heat Advisories do not count.
In the event the NWS renders unavailable, resolution will be determined by observed daily high temperatures at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (station KPHX) as reported by NOAA's Climate Data Online (ncdc.noaa.gov) and any calendar day with an observed high of 110°F or above will count as a warning day for resolution purposes.National Weather Service issuances confirm Phoenix metro remained under Extreme Heat Warning for well over 10 days in August 2026, driven by persistent high-pressure patterns that produced afternoon highs of 110–117°F and overnight lows near 90°F. Multiple extensions through late August, including record-tying peaks, aligned with official criteria for major to extreme HeatRisk on the NWS scale. This outcome matches long-term trends of intensifying summer heat in the Southwest, where baseline temperatures already approach warning thresholds. While final NWS tallies leave little room for revision, minor adjustments in geographic boundaries or exact warning start times represent the only plausible variables that could theoretically shift counts, though none have materialized in post-event reviews.
This market will resolve "Yes" if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for a cumulative total of 10 or more calendar days during August 1–31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A calendar day counts if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for any portion of that day for the NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix). The total count of Extreme Heat Warning events for zone AZZ543 can be verified using Iowa Environmental Mesonet's NWS warning search tool at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/search.php, filtered to zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for the month of August.
Multiple warnings on the same day count as one day. Heat Advisories do not count.
In the event the NWS renders unavailable, resolution will be determined by observed daily high temperatures at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (station KPHX) as reported by NOAA's Climate Data Online (ncdc.noaa.gov) and any calendar day with an observed high of 110°F or above will count as a warning day for resolution purposes.
A calendar day counts if an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for any portion of that day for the NWS forecast zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix). The total count of Extreme Heat Warning events for zone AZZ543 can be verified using Iowa Environmental Mesonet's NWS warning search tool at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/search.php, filtered to zone AZZ543 (Central Phoenix) for the month of August.
Multiple warnings on the same day count as one day. Heat Advisories do not count.
In the event the NWS renders unavailable, resolution will be determined by observed daily high temperatures at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (station KPHX) as reported by NOAA's Climate Data Online (ncdc.noaa.gov) and any calendar day with an observed high of 110°F or above will count as a warning day for resolution purposes.
Volume
$576End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
National Weather Service issuances confirm Phoenix metro remained under Extreme Heat Warning for well over 10 days in August 2026, driven by persistent high-pressure patterns that produced afternoon highs of 110–117°F and overnight lows near 90°F. Multiple extensions through late August, including record-tying peaks, aligned with official criteria for major to extreme HeatRisk on the NWS scale. This outcome matches long-term trends of intensifying summer heat in the Southwest, where baseline temperatures already approach warning thresholds. While final NWS tallies leave little room for revision, minor adjustments in geographic boundaries or exact warning start times represent the only plausible variables that could theoretically shift counts, though none have materialized in post-event reviews.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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