Strong El Niño conditions produced persistent high vertical wind shear across the Atlantic main development region throughout August 2026, inhibiting organization and intensification of tropical waves into hurricanes. Official National Hurricane Center data show only five short-lived tropical storms formed all season through September 1, with zero hurricanes and extremely low accumulated cyclone energy (about 90% below the 1991–2020 average). No systems reached the 64-knot hurricane threshold or tracked toward U.S. landfall, consistent with below-normal seasonal outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University. While late-month model runs occasionally hinted at possible development, observed conditions kept activity suppressed. With August concluded, only an unforeseen post-season data revision could theoretically alter the record.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?
3% chance
$1,423 Vol.
$1,423 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
3% chance
$1,423 Vol.
$1,423 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.Strong El Niño conditions produced persistent high vertical wind shear across the Atlantic main development region throughout August 2026, inhibiting organization and intensification of tropical waves into hurricanes. Official National Hurricane Center data show only five short-lived tropical storms formed all season through September 1, with zero hurricanes and extremely low accumulated cyclone energy (about 90% below the 1991–2020 average). No systems reached the 64-knot hurricane threshold or tracked toward U.S. landfall, consistent with below-normal seasonal outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University. While late-month model runs occasionally hinted at possible development, observed conditions kept activity suppressed. With August concluded, only an unforeseen post-season data revision could theoretically alter the record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
Volume
$1,423End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.Strong El Niño conditions produced persistent high vertical wind shear across the Atlantic main development region throughout August 2026, inhibiting organization and intensification of tropical waves into hurricanes. Official National Hurricane Center data show only five short-lived tropical storms formed all season through September 1, with zero hurricanes and extremely low accumulated cyclone energy (about 90% below the 1991–2020 average). No systems reached the 64-knot hurricane threshold or tracked toward U.S. landfall, consistent with below-normal seasonal outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University. While late-month model runs occasionally hinted at possible development, observed conditions kept activity suppressed. With August concluded, only an unforeseen post-season data revision could theoretically alter the record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
Volume
$1,423End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Strong El Niño conditions produced persistent high vertical wind shear across the Atlantic main development region throughout August 2026, inhibiting organization and intensification of tropical waves into hurricanes. Official National Hurricane Center data show only five short-lived tropical storms formed all season through September 1, with zero hurricanes and extremely low accumulated cyclone energy (about 90% below the 1991–2020 average). No systems reached the 64-knot hurricane threshold or tracked toward U.S. landfall, consistent with below-normal seasonal outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University. While late-month model runs occasionally hinted at possible development, observed conditions kept activity suppressed. With August concluded, only an unforeseen post-season data revision could theoretically alter the record.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions