Stable high-pressure conditions and clear skies are positioning Madrid for a peak temperature near 34°C on September 24, aligning with the market's leading 56.5% implied probability for that exact outcome. Multiple forecast models show afternoon highs of 33–34°C under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, consistent with late-September climatology when Madrid often experiences its warmest late-summer readings. Recent model consensus has held steady over the past 48 hours with no significant shifts in steering patterns or moisture, supporting the 34–35°C cluster that together commands over 90% of trader attention. Resolution hinges on official AEMET observations; any late intensification of southerly advection could push readings toward 35°C, while unexpected cloud development would favor the lower-probability 33°C outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 24?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 24?
34°C 56%
35°C 32%
33°C 18%
36°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
6%
32°C
5%
33°C
18%
34°C
56%
35°C
30%
36°C
8%
37°C
4%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 56%
35°C 32%
33°C 18%
36°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
29°C or below
$139 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$115 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$17 Vol.
6%
32°C
$20 Vol.
5%
33°C
$276 Vol.
18%
34°C
$247 Vol.
56%
35°C
$346 Vol.
30%
36°C
$18 Vol.
8%
37°C
$20 Vol.
4%
38°C
$0 Vol.
1%
39°C or higher
$139 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Stable high-pressure conditions and clear skies are positioning Madrid for a peak temperature near 34°C on September 24, aligning with the market's leading 56.5% implied probability for that exact outcome. Multiple forecast models show afternoon highs of 33–34°C under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, consistent with late-September climatology when Madrid often experiences its warmest late-summer readings. Recent model consensus has held steady over the past 48 hours with no significant shifts in steering patterns or moisture, supporting the 34–35°C cluster that together commands over 90% of trader attention. Resolution hinges on official AEMET observations; any late intensification of southerly advection could push readings toward 35°C, while unexpected cloud development would favor the lower-probability 33°C outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,336End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Stable high-pressure conditions and clear skies are positioning Madrid for a peak temperature near 34°C on September 24, aligning with the market's leading 56.5% implied probability for that exact outcome. Multiple forecast models show afternoon highs of 33–34°C under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, consistent with late-September climatology when Madrid often experiences its warmest late-summer readings. Recent model consensus has held steady over the past 48 hours with no significant shifts in steering patterns or moisture, supporting the 34–35°C cluster that together commands over 90% of trader attention. Resolution hinges on official AEMET observations; any late intensification of southerly advection could push readings toward 35°C, while unexpected cloud development would favor the lower-probability 33°C outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,336End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Stable high-pressure conditions and clear skies are positioning Madrid for a peak temperature near 34°C on September 24, aligning with the market's leading 56.5% implied probability for that exact outcome. Multiple forecast models show afternoon highs of 33–34°C under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, consistent with late-September climatology when Madrid often experiences its warmest late-summer readings. Recent model consensus has held steady over the past 48 hours with no significant shifts in steering patterns or moisture, supporting the 34–35°C cluster that together commands over 90% of trader attention. Resolution hinges on official AEMET observations; any late intensification of southerly advection could push readings toward 35°C, while unexpected cloud development would favor the lower-probability 33°C outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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