Current short-term forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Madrid will experience clear, sunny conditions on September 23 under persistent high pressure, with afternoon highs projected near 32–33°C amid light southeasterly winds and minimal cloud cover. This setup aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities for 33°C (47.5%) and 34°C (35.5%), reflecting model consensus on modest warming above the late-September climatological average of roughly 25°C. Recent observations show stable atmospheric patterns with no incoming fronts or significant moisture, though small forecast uncertainties in maximum temperature—driven by exact timing of peak heating and local urban effects—support the narrower odds on 35°C or cooler outcomes. Updated model runs and official agency guidance over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 23?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 23?
33°C 48%
34°C 36%
35°C 7%
32°C 3.9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
28°C or below
2%
29°C
2%
30°C
2%
31°C
2%
32°C
4%
33°C
48%
34°C
36%
35°C
7%
36°C
1%
37°C
2%
38°C or higher
<1%
33°C 48%
34°C 36%
35°C 7%
32°C 3.9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
28°C or below
$55 Vol.
2%
29°C
$10 Vol.
2%
30°C
$5 Vol.
2%
31°C
$10 Vol.
2%
32°C
$536 Vol.
4%
33°C
$583 Vol.
48%
34°C
$642 Vol.
36%
35°C
$723 Vol.
7%
36°C
$327 Vol.
1%
37°C
$5 Vol.
2%
38°C or higher
$356 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-term forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Madrid will experience clear, sunny conditions on September 23 under persistent high pressure, with afternoon highs projected near 32–33°C amid light southeasterly winds and minimal cloud cover. This setup aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities for 33°C (47.5%) and 34°C (35.5%), reflecting model consensus on modest warming above the late-September climatological average of roughly 25°C. Recent observations show stable atmospheric patterns with no incoming fronts or significant moisture, though small forecast uncertainties in maximum temperature—driven by exact timing of peak heating and local urban effects—support the narrower odds on 35°C or cooler outcomes. Updated model runs and official agency guidance over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$3,220End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-term forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Madrid will experience clear, sunny conditions on September 23 under persistent high pressure, with afternoon highs projected near 32–33°C amid light southeasterly winds and minimal cloud cover. This setup aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities for 33°C (47.5%) and 34°C (35.5%), reflecting model consensus on modest warming above the late-September climatological average of roughly 25°C. Recent observations show stable atmospheric patterns with no incoming fronts or significant moisture, though small forecast uncertainties in maximum temperature—driven by exact timing of peak heating and local urban effects—support the narrower odds on 35°C or cooler outcomes. Updated model runs and official agency guidance over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,220End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-term forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Madrid will experience clear, sunny conditions on September 23 under persistent high pressure, with afternoon highs projected near 32–33°C amid light southeasterly winds and minimal cloud cover. This setup aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities for 33°C (47.5%) and 34°C (35.5%), reflecting model consensus on modest warming above the late-September climatological average of roughly 25°C. Recent observations show stable atmospheric patterns with no incoming fronts or significant moisture, though small forecast uncertainties in maximum temperature—driven by exact timing of peak heating and local urban effects—support the narrower odds on 35°C or cooler outcomes. Updated model runs and official agency guidance over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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