**Current NWS and model consensus point to an overnight low in the upper 70s to low 80s for Houston on September 23, 2026, under persistent high pressure and light easterly flow.** This favors the 78-79°F bucket (49% implied probability) as the market leader, with 80-81°F close behind, reflecting minor uncertainty in exact minimum timing and urban heat-island effects. Recent observations show September 2026 running several degrees above the 1991-2020 climatological average low of ~71°F, with the past week featuring morning lows mostly in the mid-70s amid above-normal dew points and minimal overnight radiational cooling. No incoming cold fronts or tropical moisture are expected to alter the pattern before the 23rd, keeping temperatures elevated relative to historical norms. Traders are weighting the latest NWS Houston/Galveston forecast (low ~80°F) and short-range model runs heavily, with limited downside risk below 76°F given the warm airmass in place.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Houston on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Houston on September 23?
78-79°F 49%
90°F or higher 49%
80-81°F 40%
72-73°F 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
71°F or below
1%
72-73°F
39%
74-75°F
39%
76-77°F
21%
78-79°F
49%
80-81°F
25%
82-83°F
21%
84-85°F
39%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
1%
90°F or higher
49%
78-79°F 49%
90°F or higher 49%
80-81°F 40%
72-73°F 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
71°F or below
$100 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
39%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
39%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
21%
78-79°F
$34 Vol.
49%
80-81°F
$5 Vol.
25%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
21%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
39%
86-87°F
$100 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$100 Vol.
1%
90°F or higher
$100 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current NWS and model consensus point to an overnight low in the upper 70s to low 80s for Houston on September 23, 2026, under persistent high pressure and light easterly flow.**
This favors the 78-79°F bucket (49% implied probability) as the market leader, with 80-81°F close behind, reflecting minor uncertainty in exact minimum timing and urban heat-island effects. Recent observations show September 2026 running several degrees above the 1991-2020 climatological average low of ~71°F, with the past week featuring morning lows mostly in the mid-70s amid above-normal dew points and minimal overnight radiational cooling.
No incoming cold fronts or tropical moisture are expected to alter the pattern before the 23rd, keeping temperatures elevated relative to historical norms. Traders are weighting the latest NWS Houston/Galveston forecast (low ~80°F) and short-range model runs heavily, with limited downside risk below 76°F given the warm airmass in place.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$439End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current NWS and model consensus point to an overnight low in the upper 70s to low 80s for Houston on September 23, 2026, under persistent high pressure and light easterly flow.**
This favors the 78-79°F bucket (49% implied probability) as the market leader, with 80-81°F close behind, reflecting minor uncertainty in exact minimum timing and urban heat-island effects. Recent observations show September 2026 running several degrees above the 1991-2020 climatological average low of ~71°F, with the past week featuring morning lows mostly in the mid-70s amid above-normal dew points and minimal overnight radiational cooling.
No incoming cold fronts or tropical moisture are expected to alter the pattern before the 23rd, keeping temperatures elevated relative to historical norms. Traders are weighting the latest NWS Houston/Galveston forecast (low ~80°F) and short-range model runs heavily, with limited downside risk below 76°F given the warm airmass in place.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$439End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current NWS and model consensus point to an overnight low in the upper 70s to low 80s for Houston on September 23, 2026, under persistent high pressure and light easterly flow.** This favors the 78-79°F bucket (49% implied probability) as the market leader, with 80-81°F close behind, reflecting minor uncertainty in exact minimum timing and urban heat-island effects. Recent observations show September 2026 running several degrees above the 1991-2020 climatological average low of ~71°F, with the past week featuring morning lows mostly in the mid-70s amid above-normal dew points and minimal overnight radiational cooling. No incoming cold fronts or tropical moisture are expected to alter the pattern before the 23rd, keeping temperatures elevated relative to historical norms. Traders are weighting the latest NWS Houston/Galveston forecast (low ~80°F) and short-range model runs heavily, with limited downside risk below 76°F given the warm airmass in place.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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