Current Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies have already reached +2.8–3.0°C, placing the 2026 event in very strong territory per NOAA and IRI criteria, with all dynamical models projecting further intensification or sustained peaks above +2.0°C through the October–December 2026 core winter period. Official CPC outlooks assign over 90% probability to a very strong El Niño persisting into early 2027, supported by record subsurface heat content and atmosphere-ocean coupling that mirrors or exceeds analogs like 1997–98. Trader consensus at 96.5% reflects this near-unanimous observational and ensemble evidence, though minor uncertainty remains around exact seasonal-average thresholds or an unusually rapid late-season decay. Updated weekly indices and the next CPC discussion will provide the primary near-term signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
97% chance
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2027
97% chance
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Current Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies have already reached +2.8–3.0°C, placing the 2026 event in very strong territory per NOAA and IRI criteria, with all dynamical models projecting further intensification or sustained peaks above +2.0°C through the October–December 2026 core winter period. Official CPC outlooks assign over 90% probability to a very strong El Niño persisting into early 2027, supported by record subsurface heat content and atmosphere-ocean coupling that mirrors or exceeds analogs like 1997–98. Trader consensus at 96.5% reflects this near-unanimous observational and ensemble evidence, though minor uncertainty remains around exact seasonal-average thresholds or an unusually rapid late-season decay. Updated weekly indices and the next CPC discussion will provide the primary near-term signals.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Volume
$9,309End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Current Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies have already reached +2.8–3.0°C, placing the 2026 event in very strong territory per NOAA and IRI criteria, with all dynamical models projecting further intensification or sustained peaks above +2.0°C through the October–December 2026 core winter period. Official CPC outlooks assign over 90% probability to a very strong El Niño persisting into early 2027, supported by record subsurface heat content and atmosphere-ocean coupling that mirrors or exceeds analogs like 1997–98. Trader consensus at 96.5% reflects this near-unanimous observational and ensemble evidence, though minor uncertainty remains around exact seasonal-average thresholds or an unusually rapid late-season decay. Updated weekly indices and the next CPC discussion will provide the primary near-term signals.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Volume
$9,309End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies have already reached +2.8–3.0°C, placing the 2026 event in very strong territory per NOAA and IRI criteria, with all dynamical models projecting further intensification or sustained peaks above +2.0°C through the October–December 2026 core winter period. Official CPC outlooks assign over 90% probability to a very strong El Niño persisting into early 2027, supported by record subsurface heat content and atmosphere-ocean coupling that mirrors or exceeds analogs like 1997–98. Trader consensus at 96.5% reflects this near-unanimous observational and ensemble evidence, though minor uncertainty remains around exact seasonal-average thresholds or an unusually rapid late-season decay. Updated weekly indices and the next CPC discussion will provide the primary near-term signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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