Recent model consensus from the Met Office, BBC, and GFS runs points to a daytime maximum near 22°C in Warsaw on August 17, driven by a post-heatwave shift to westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air under increasing cloud cover and possible light showers. This setup explains the market's tight leading outcomes at 22°C (32.5%) and 23°C (26%), which largely reflect ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing, insolation, and exact frontal timing rather than major synoptic divergence. Historical August maxima average 23–24°C, so the current pattern represents a modest cool anomaly following earlier southerly advection that produced 29–30°C peaks on prior days. Updated short-range guidance and afternoon observations will refine the precise threshold before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 17?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 17?
22°C 33%
23°C 26%
24°C 15%
20°C or below 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
20°C or below
12%
21°C
11%
22°C
33%
23°C
26%
24°C
15%
25°C
5%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
22°C 33%
23°C 26%
24°C 15%
20°C or below 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
20°C or below
$1,031 Vol.
12%
21°C
$230 Vol.
11%
22°C
$398 Vol.
33%
23°C
$174 Vol.
26%
24°C
$85 Vol.
15%
25°C
$225 Vol.
5%
26°C
$41 Vol.
1%
27°C
$1 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$26 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$11 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from the Met Office, BBC, and GFS runs points to a daytime maximum near 22°C in Warsaw on August 17, driven by a post-heatwave shift to westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air under increasing cloud cover and possible light showers. This setup explains the market's tight leading outcomes at 22°C (32.5%) and 23°C (26%), which largely reflect ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing, insolation, and exact frontal timing rather than major synoptic divergence. Historical August maxima average 23–24°C, so the current pattern represents a modest cool anomaly following earlier southerly advection that produced 29–30°C peaks on prior days. Updated short-range guidance and afternoon observations will refine the precise threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Volume
$2,223End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from the Met Office, BBC, and GFS runs points to a daytime maximum near 22°C in Warsaw on August 17, driven by a post-heatwave shift to westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air under increasing cloud cover and possible light showers. This setup explains the market's tight leading outcomes at 22°C (32.5%) and 23°C (26%), which largely reflect ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing, insolation, and exact frontal timing rather than major synoptic divergence. Historical August maxima average 23–24°C, so the current pattern represents a modest cool anomaly following earlier southerly advection that produced 29–30°C peaks on prior days. Updated short-range guidance and afternoon observations will refine the precise threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,223End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from the Met Office, BBC, and GFS runs points to a daytime maximum near 22°C in Warsaw on August 17, driven by a post-heatwave shift to westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air under increasing cloud cover and possible light showers. This setup explains the market's tight leading outcomes at 22°C (32.5%) and 23°C (26%), which largely reflect ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing, insolation, and exact frontal timing rather than major synoptic divergence. Historical August maxima average 23–24°C, so the current pattern represents a modest cool anomaly following earlier southerly advection that produced 29–30°C peaks on prior days. Updated short-range guidance and afternoon observations will refine the precise threshold before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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