Forecast models and official guidance from the National Weather Service indicate sunny, stable high-pressure conditions will drive Dallas highs to around 100–102°F on August 15, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 100–101°F. Typical late-summer patterns feature southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, supporting peak temperatures near the upper end of the 98–101°F range without the moisture or fronts needed for significant cooling or intensification. Recent model runs show tight consensus around these values, with only minor day-to-day adjustments, while historical August averages near 96–100°F provide context for the current setup. Traders appear to be pricing in official station readings that resolve in the 100–101°F bin, with limited probability assigned to outliers given the absence of forecast shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on August 15?
Highest temperature in Dallas on August 15?
100-101°F 76%
98-99°F 21%
102-103°F 3%
96-97°F 2%
NEW
$24,272 Vol.
NEW
$24,272 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
93°F or below
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
2%
98-99°F
21%
100-101°F
76%
102-103°F
3%
104-105°F
<1%
106-107°F
<1%
108-109°F
<1%
110-111°F
<1%
112°F or higher
<1%
100-101°F 76%
98-99°F 21%
102-103°F 3%
96-97°F 2%
NEW
$24,272 Vol.
NEW
$24,272 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
93°F or below
$387 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$1,943 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$1,155 Vol.
2%
98-99°F
$3,172 Vol.
21%
100-101°F
$12,974 Vol.
76%
102-103°F
$1,232 Vol.
3%
104-105°F
$1,364 Vol.
<1%
106-107°F
$616 Vol.
<1%
108-109°F
$677 Vol.
<1%
110-111°F
$276 Vol.
<1%
112°F or higher
$475 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models and official guidance from the National Weather Service indicate sunny, stable high-pressure conditions will drive Dallas highs to around 100–102°F on August 15, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 100–101°F. Typical late-summer patterns feature southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, supporting peak temperatures near the upper end of the 98–101°F range without the moisture or fronts needed for significant cooling or intensification. Recent model runs show tight consensus around these values, with only minor day-to-day adjustments, while historical August averages near 96–100°F provide context for the current setup. Traders appear to be pricing in official station readings that resolve in the 100–101°F bin, with limited probability assigned to outliers given the absence of forecast shifts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$24,272End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models and official guidance from the National Weather Service indicate sunny, stable high-pressure conditions will drive Dallas highs to around 100–102°F on August 15, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 100–101°F. Typical late-summer patterns feature southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, supporting peak temperatures near the upper end of the 98–101°F range without the moisture or fronts needed for significant cooling or intensification. Recent model runs show tight consensus around these values, with only minor day-to-day adjustments, while historical August averages near 96–100°F provide context for the current setup. Traders appear to be pricing in official station readings that resolve in the 100–101°F bin, with limited probability assigned to outliers given the absence of forecast shifts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$24,272End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models and official guidance from the National Weather Service indicate sunny, stable high-pressure conditions will drive Dallas highs to around 100–102°F on August 15, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 100–101°F. Typical late-summer patterns feature southerly flow and minimal cloud cover, supporting peak temperatures near the upper end of the 98–101°F range without the moisture or fronts needed for significant cooling or intensification. Recent model runs show tight consensus around these values, with only minor day-to-day adjustments, while historical August averages near 96–100°F provide context for the current setup. Traders appear to be pricing in official station readings that resolve in the 100–101°F bin, with limited probability assigned to outliers given the absence of forecast shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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