Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Ankara's Esenboğa International Airport station, where the highest temperature on May 14 is expected to hover between 21°C and 22°C amid a 65% chance of afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms. Latest guidance from global models like GFS and ECMWF, alongside services such as timeanddate.com (projecting 22°C high) and AccuWeather (noting increasing clouds), shows ensemble means clustering here due to a weakening high-pressure ridge allowing southerly moisture influx and convective potential to suppress peak heating. Differentiating factors include cloud cover thickness—thinner veils favoring 22°C versus thicker overcast or early storms capping at 21°C—and light southwest winds (9-11 mph) limiting mixing. Watch overnight model updates and morning observations for shifts before resolution via official Weather Underground history.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on May 14?
Highest temperature in Ankara on May 14?
22°C 33.6%
21°C 32%
23°C 15.3%
20°C 13%
NEW
$33,204 Vol.
NEW
$33,204 Vol.
May 14, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
4%
20°C
13%
21°C
32%
22°C
34%
23°C
15%
24°C
2%
25°C or higher
1%
22°C 33.6%
21°C 32%
23°C 15.3%
20°C 13%
NEW
$33,204 Vol.
NEW
$33,204 Vol.
May 14, 2026
15°C or below
$2,034 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,067 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$2,018 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$5,480 Vol.
1%
19°C
$3,277 Vol.
4%
20°C
$2,811 Vol.
13%
21°C
$2,257 Vol.
32%
22°C
$2,040 Vol.
34%
23°C
$4,422 Vol.
15%
24°C
$4,176 Vol.
2%
25°C or higher
$3,633 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Ankara's Esenboğa International Airport station, where the highest temperature on May 14 is expected to hover between 21°C and 22°C amid a 65% chance of afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms. Latest guidance from global models like GFS and ECMWF, alongside services such as timeanddate.com (projecting 22°C high) and AccuWeather (noting increasing clouds), shows ensemble means clustering here due to a weakening high-pressure ridge allowing southerly moisture influx and convective potential to suppress peak heating. Differentiating factors include cloud cover thickness—thinner veils favoring 22°C versus thicker overcast or early storms capping at 21°C—and light southwest winds (9-11 mph) limiting mixing. Watch overnight model updates and morning observations for shifts before resolution via official Weather Underground history.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$33,204End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Ankara's Esenboğa International Airport station, where the highest temperature on May 14 is expected to hover between 21°C and 22°C amid a 65% chance of afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms. Latest guidance from global models like GFS and ECMWF, alongside services such as timeanddate.com (projecting 22°C high) and AccuWeather (noting increasing clouds), shows ensemble means clustering here due to a weakening high-pressure ridge allowing southerly moisture influx and convective potential to suppress peak heating. Differentiating factors include cloud cover thickness—thinner veils favoring 22°C versus thicker overcast or early storms capping at 21°C—and light southwest winds (9-11 mph) limiting mixing. Watch overnight model updates and morning observations for shifts before resolution via official Weather Underground history.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$33,204End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Ankara's Esenboğa International Airport station, where the highest temperature on May 14 is expected to hover between 21°C and 22°C amid a 65% chance of afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms. Latest guidance from global models like GFS and ECMWF, alongside services such as timeanddate.com (projecting 22°C high) and AccuWeather (noting increasing clouds), shows ensemble means clustering here due to a weakening high-pressure ridge allowing southerly moisture influx and convective potential to suppress peak heating. Differentiating factors include cloud cover thickness—thinner veils favoring 22°C versus thicker overcast or early storms capping at 21°C—and light southwest winds (9-11 mph) limiting mixing. Watch overnight model updates and morning observations for shifts before resolution via official Weather Underground history.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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