Latest ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models project Warsaw’s maximum temperature on May 16 to peak near 13°C, aligning with the market’s 54% implied probability for that exact outcome. Persistent low cloud cover combined with a cool northerly airflow across central Poland has suppressed solar heating, keeping readings well below the mid-May climatological average of 18–19°C recorded at Warsaw Chopin Airport. This synoptic setup follows warmer high-pressure conditions on May 14, when highs reached approximately 18°C, but a frontal boundary has since introduced unsettled, cooler air. Traders are also pricing in modest upside risk to 14°C at 24.5% if afternoon clearing develops, while the 13.5% probability assigned to 12°C or below reflects residual uncertainty in cloud thickness and wind strength through the afternoon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 16?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 16?
13°C 65%
14°C 36%
15°C 1.6%
16°C <1%
$39,078 Vol.
$39,078 Vol.
May 16, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
65%
14°C
36%
15°C
2%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
13°C 65%
14°C 36%
15°C 1.6%
16°C <1%
$39,078 Vol.
$39,078 Vol.
May 16, 2026
12°C or below
$7,980 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$4,545 Vol.
65%
14°C
$4,154 Vol.
36%
15°C
$4,636 Vol.
2%
16°C
$3,385 Vol.
1%
17°C
$2,587 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,924 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,900 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$3,052 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,275 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$2,660 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models project Warsaw’s maximum temperature on May 16 to peak near 13°C, aligning with the market’s 54% implied probability for that exact outcome. Persistent low cloud cover combined with a cool northerly airflow across central Poland has suppressed solar heating, keeping readings well below the mid-May climatological average of 18–19°C recorded at Warsaw Chopin Airport. This synoptic setup follows warmer high-pressure conditions on May 14, when highs reached approximately 18°C, but a frontal boundary has since introduced unsettled, cooler air. Traders are also pricing in modest upside risk to 14°C at 24.5% if afternoon clearing develops, while the 13.5% probability assigned to 12°C or below reflects residual uncertainty in cloud thickness and wind strength through the afternoon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$39,078End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models project Warsaw’s maximum temperature on May 16 to peak near 13°C, aligning with the market’s 54% implied probability for that exact outcome. Persistent low cloud cover combined with a cool northerly airflow across central Poland has suppressed solar heating, keeping readings well below the mid-May climatological average of 18–19°C recorded at Warsaw Chopin Airport. This synoptic setup follows warmer high-pressure conditions on May 14, when highs reached approximately 18°C, but a frontal boundary has since introduced unsettled, cooler air. Traders are also pricing in modest upside risk to 14°C at 24.5% if afternoon clearing develops, while the 13.5% probability assigned to 12°C or below reflects residual uncertainty in cloud thickness and wind strength through the afternoon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$39,078End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models project Warsaw’s maximum temperature on May 16 to peak near 13°C, aligning with the market’s 54% implied probability for that exact outcome. Persistent low cloud cover combined with a cool northerly airflow across central Poland has suppressed solar heating, keeping readings well below the mid-May climatological average of 18–19°C recorded at Warsaw Chopin Airport. This synoptic setup follows warmer high-pressure conditions on May 14, when highs reached approximately 18°C, but a frontal boundary has since introduced unsettled, cooler air. Traders are also pricing in modest upside risk to 14°C at 24.5% if afternoon clearing develops, while the 13.5% probability assigned to 12°C or below reflects residual uncertainty in cloud thickness and wind strength through the afternoon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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