Current numerical weather prediction models, including consensus runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, indicate a high near 21 °C for Warsaw on May 18 under mostly cloudy skies with light southerly flow. This setup favors warm-air advection ahead of an approaching trough, pushing daytime maxima well above the mid-May climatological average of 19 °C. The market-implied probability exceeding 79 % for 19 °C or higher reflects this model agreement and limited downside risk from cooling precipitation or northerly winds. Updated short-range guidance over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak, but present conditions show no significant barriers to reaching the upper end of the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 18?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 18?
19°C or higher 81%
18°C 14%
17°C 5%
16°C 1.9%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
5%
18°C
14%
19°C or higher
81%
19°C or higher 81%
18°C 14%
17°C 5%
16°C 1.9%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
9°C or below
$582 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$602 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$1,087 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$446 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$123 Vol.
1%
14°C
$736 Vol.
1%
15°C
$566 Vol.
1%
16°C
$776 Vol.
2%
17°C
$468 Vol.
5%
18°C
$306 Vol.
14%
19°C or higher
$368 Vol.
81%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current numerical weather prediction models, including consensus runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, indicate a high near 21 °C for Warsaw on May 18 under mostly cloudy skies with light southerly flow. This setup favors warm-air advection ahead of an approaching trough, pushing daytime maxima well above the mid-May climatological average of 19 °C. The market-implied probability exceeding 79 % for 19 °C or higher reflects this model agreement and limited downside risk from cooling precipitation or northerly winds. Updated short-range guidance over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak, but present conditions show no significant barriers to reaching the upper end of the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$6,061End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current numerical weather prediction models, including consensus runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, indicate a high near 21 °C for Warsaw on May 18 under mostly cloudy skies with light southerly flow. This setup favors warm-air advection ahead of an approaching trough, pushing daytime maxima well above the mid-May climatological average of 19 °C. The market-implied probability exceeding 79 % for 19 °C or higher reflects this model agreement and limited downside risk from cooling precipitation or northerly winds. Updated short-range guidance over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak, but present conditions show no significant barriers to reaching the upper end of the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,061End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWACurrent numerical weather prediction models, including consensus runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, indicate a high near 21 °C for Warsaw on May 18 under mostly cloudy skies with light southerly flow. This setup favors warm-air advection ahead of an approaching trough, pushing daytime maxima well above the mid-May climatological average of 19 °C. The market-implied probability exceeding 79 % for 19 °C or higher reflects this model agreement and limited downside risk from cooling precipitation or northerly winds. Updated short-range guidance over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak, but present conditions show no significant barriers to reaching the upper end of the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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