Latest numerical weather prediction models cluster around a daily maximum of 14–15°C for Wellington on May 18, driven by a stable high-pressure ridge and light southerly airflow that favors clear to partly cloudy skies with minimal daytime heating. This range matches May’s long-term average high of roughly 14°C at Wellington International Airport, where autumn conditions typically limit extremes. Recent model runs show little dispersion, keeping upside risk to 16°C or above below 10 percent unless a rapid northerly change develops. Traders have priced the outcome accordingly, reflecting high confidence in the central forecast cluster while acknowledging the narrow window for last-minute adjustments before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on May 18?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 18?
14°C 47%
15°C 30%
13°C 14%
16°C 7%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
4%
13°C
14%
14°C
47%
15°C
30%
16°C
7%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 47%
15°C 30%
13°C 14%
16°C 7%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
8°C or below
$576 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$225 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$123 Vol.
1%
11°C
$278 Vol.
1%
12°C
$169 Vol.
4%
13°C
$71 Vol.
14%
14°C
$289 Vol.
47%
15°C
$138 Vol.
30%
16°C
$82 Vol.
7%
17°C
$14 Vol.
1%
18°C or higher
$135 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest numerical weather prediction models cluster around a daily maximum of 14–15°C for Wellington on May 18, driven by a stable high-pressure ridge and light southerly airflow that favors clear to partly cloudy skies with minimal daytime heating. This range matches May’s long-term average high of roughly 14°C at Wellington International Airport, where autumn conditions typically limit extremes. Recent model runs show little dispersion, keeping upside risk to 16°C or above below 10 percent unless a rapid northerly change develops. Traders have priced the outcome accordingly, reflecting high confidence in the central forecast cluster while acknowledging the narrow window for last-minute adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$2,081End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest numerical weather prediction models cluster around a daily maximum of 14–15°C for Wellington on May 18, driven by a stable high-pressure ridge and light southerly airflow that favors clear to partly cloudy skies with minimal daytime heating. This range matches May’s long-term average high of roughly 14°C at Wellington International Airport, where autumn conditions typically limit extremes. Recent model runs show little dispersion, keeping upside risk to 16°C or above below 10 percent unless a rapid northerly change develops. Traders have priced the outcome accordingly, reflecting high confidence in the central forecast cluster while acknowledging the narrow window for last-minute adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,081End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNLatest numerical weather prediction models cluster around a daily maximum of 14–15°C for Wellington on May 18, driven by a stable high-pressure ridge and light southerly airflow that favors clear to partly cloudy skies with minimal daytime heating. This range matches May’s long-term average high of roughly 14°C at Wellington International Airport, where autumn conditions typically limit extremes. Recent model runs show little dispersion, keeping upside risk to 16°C or above below 10 percent unless a rapid northerly change develops. Traders have priced the outcome accordingly, reflecting high confidence in the central forecast cluster while acknowledging the narrow window for last-minute adjustments before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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