Current National Weather Service and NOAA guidance for Miami points to a minimum temperature on May 20 in the mid- to upper-70s, shaped by persistent easterly flow and scattered showers that limit nighttime radiational cooling under typical late-spring humidity levels. This setup explains the leading market-implied probability for 73°F or below, as any strengthening of the trade winds or brief clear spells could allow greater heat loss and push readings toward historical normals around 73–76°F. Recent ensemble model runs show modest spread in low-level moisture and wind direction, keeping outcomes in the 76–79°F range competitive while making warmer thresholds less likely without an unexpected southerly surge. Updated short-range forecasts and next GFS/ECMWF runs will further constrain the exact minimum before resolution.