Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 14°C (35%) and 15°C (28%) as the highest temperature in London on May 16, aligning with the UK Met Office and BBC Weather's latest short-range forecasts indicating sunny intervals amid a chilly northerly airflow, with maximums near 15°C under light winds and variable cloud. Recent developments over the past 48 hours include easing showers from earlier cloudy patterns, allowing brighter spells and modest daytime heating via increased insolation, though persistent upper-level troughing caps potential above 16°C and boosts 13°C odds via overcast scenarios. Model ensembles like the Met Office UKV show a tight 13-16°C spread due to uncertain timing of cloud breaks during peak afternoon hours; updated 00Z runs on May 15 will likely sharpen this edge, with official Heathrow observations resolving the market. Historical May maxima average 17°C, but current cooler regime tempers expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on May 16?
Highest temperature in London on May 16?
14°C 34%
15°C 28%
13°C 21%
16°C 12%
NEW
$16,050 Vol.
NEW
$16,050 Vol.
May 16, 2026
10°C or below
1%
11°C
2%
12°C
6%
13°C
21%
14°C
34%
15°C
28%
16°C
12%
17°C
3%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
14°C 34%
15°C 28%
13°C 21%
16°C 12%
NEW
$16,050 Vol.
NEW
$16,050 Vol.
May 16, 2026
10°C or below
$6,607 Vol.
1%
11°C
$1,755 Vol.
2%
12°C
$1,613 Vol.
6%
13°C
$1,261 Vol.
21%
14°C
$758 Vol.
34%
15°C
$838 Vol.
28%
16°C
$738 Vol.
12%
17°C
$663 Vol.
3%
18°C
$464 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$608 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$746 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 14°C (35%) and 15°C (28%) as the highest temperature in London on May 16, aligning with the UK Met Office and BBC Weather's latest short-range forecasts indicating sunny intervals amid a chilly northerly airflow, with maximums near 15°C under light winds and variable cloud. Recent developments over the past 48 hours include easing showers from earlier cloudy patterns, allowing brighter spells and modest daytime heating via increased insolation, though persistent upper-level troughing caps potential above 16°C and boosts 13°C odds via overcast scenarios. Model ensembles like the Met Office UKV show a tight 13-16°C spread due to uncertain timing of cloud breaks during peak afternoon hours; updated 00Z runs on May 15 will likely sharpen this edge, with official Heathrow observations resolving the market. Historical May maxima average 17°C, but current cooler regime tempers expectations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$16,050End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 14°C (35%) and 15°C (28%) as the highest temperature in London on May 16, aligning with the UK Met Office and BBC Weather's latest short-range forecasts indicating sunny intervals amid a chilly northerly airflow, with maximums near 15°C under light winds and variable cloud. Recent developments over the past 48 hours include easing showers from earlier cloudy patterns, allowing brighter spells and modest daytime heating via increased insolation, though persistent upper-level troughing caps potential above 16°C and boosts 13°C odds via overcast scenarios. Model ensembles like the Met Office UKV show a tight 13-16°C spread due to uncertain timing of cloud breaks during peak afternoon hours; updated 00Z runs on May 15 will likely sharpen this edge, with official Heathrow observations resolving the market. Historical May maxima average 17°C, but current cooler regime tempers expectations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$16,050End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 14°C (35%) and 15°C (28%) as the highest temperature in London on May 16, aligning with the UK Met Office and BBC Weather's latest short-range forecasts indicating sunny intervals amid a chilly northerly airflow, with maximums near 15°C under light winds and variable cloud. Recent developments over the past 48 hours include easing showers from earlier cloudy patterns, allowing brighter spells and modest daytime heating via increased insolation, though persistent upper-level troughing caps potential above 16°C and boosts 13°C odds via overcast scenarios. Model ensembles like the Met Office UKV show a tight 13-16°C spread due to uncertain timing of cloud breaks during peak afternoon hours; updated 00Z runs on May 15 will likely sharpen this edge, with official Heathrow observations resolving the market. Historical May maxima average 17°C, but current cooler regime tempers expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions