Latest official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble model runs converge on a peak of 27°C in Chengdu today, driven by stable subtropical high pressure, light southeasterly flow, and typical mid-May insolation levels in the Sichuan basin. This consensus matches historical climatology, where daily highs average 26–28°C under partly cloudy skies with minimal convective activity. Real-time surface observations and satellite data through early afternoon show no significant deviation, supporting the market’s overwhelming 99.8% implied probability for 27°C. A sudden increase in cloud cover or localized showers could cap the reading at 26°C, while stronger solar heating or reduced humidity might push it to 28°C, though both remain low-probability outcomes given current atmospheric stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on May 16?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 16?
27°C 99.8%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
25°C <1%
$89,167 Vol.
$89,167 Vol.
May 16, 2026
25°C
<1%
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 99.8%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
25°C <1%
$89,167 Vol.
$89,167 Vol.
May 16, 2026
25°C
$7,638 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$10,875 Vol.
100%
28°C
$7,065 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$5,901 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$4,767 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$4,687 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble model runs converge on a peak of 27°C in Chengdu today, driven by stable subtropical high pressure, light southeasterly flow, and typical mid-May insolation levels in the Sichuan basin. This consensus matches historical climatology, where daily highs average 26–28°C under partly cloudy skies with minimal convective activity. Real-time surface observations and satellite data through early afternoon show no significant deviation, supporting the market’s overwhelming 99.8% implied probability for 27°C. A sudden increase in cloud cover or localized showers could cap the reading at 26°C, while stronger solar heating or reduced humidity might push it to 28°C, though both remain low-probability outcomes given current atmospheric stability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:42 AM ET
Volume
$89,167End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:42 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble model runs converge on a peak of 27°C in Chengdu today, driven by stable subtropical high pressure, light southeasterly flow, and typical mid-May insolation levels in the Sichuan basin. This consensus matches historical climatology, where daily highs average 26–28°C under partly cloudy skies with minimal convective activity. Real-time surface observations and satellite data through early afternoon show no significant deviation, supporting the market’s overwhelming 99.8% implied probability for 27°C. A sudden increase in cloud cover or localized showers could cap the reading at 26°C, while stronger solar heating or reduced humidity might push it to 28°C, though both remain low-probability outcomes given current atmospheric stability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$89,167End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:42 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Latest official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble model runs converge on a peak of 27°C in Chengdu today, driven by stable subtropical high pressure, light southeasterly flow, and typical mid-May insolation levels in the Sichuan basin. This consensus matches historical climatology, where daily highs average 26–28°C under partly cloudy skies with minimal convective activity. Real-time surface observations and satellite data through early afternoon show no significant deviation, supporting the market’s overwhelming 99.8% implied probability for 27°C. A sudden increase in cloud cover or localized showers could cap the reading at 26°C, while stronger solar heating or reduced humidity might push it to 28°C, though both remain low-probability outcomes given current atmospheric stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions