Current National Weather Service and ensemble model forecasts indicate Chicago will reach daytime highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s on May 17 under a stable high-pressure ridge and southerly flow advecting milder Gulf air northward. This setup aligns with climatological May averages near 71°F at O’Hare and Midway, placing the probability of exceeding 64°F near certainty in trader consensus. Minor variations in boundary-layer mixing or lake-breeze timing could trim the peak by a few degrees, yet observed trends and short-range guidance show no credible pathway for sub-64°F readings. Traders are therefore positioning on the dominant outcome while monitoring the next NWS update for any late adjustments in steering flow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on May 17?
Highest temperature in Chicago on May 17?
64°F or higher 99.8%
45°F or below <1%
46-47°F <1%
50-51°F <1%
NEW
$46,548 Vol.
NEW
$46,548 Vol.
May 17, 2026
45°F or below
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64°F or higher
100%
64°F or higher 99.8%
45°F or below <1%
46-47°F <1%
50-51°F <1%
NEW
$46,548 Vol.
NEW
$46,548 Vol.
May 17, 2026
45°F or below
$5,898 Vol.
<1%
46-47°F
$961 Vol.
<1%
48-49°F
$2,595 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$2,668 Vol.
<1%
52-53°F
$3,929 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$6,027 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$2,535 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$3,438 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$4,113 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$5,442 Vol.
<1%
64°F or higher
$8,942 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current National Weather Service and ensemble model forecasts indicate Chicago will reach daytime highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s on May 17 under a stable high-pressure ridge and southerly flow advecting milder Gulf air northward. This setup aligns with climatological May averages near 71°F at O’Hare and Midway, placing the probability of exceeding 64°F near certainty in trader consensus. Minor variations in boundary-layer mixing or lake-breeze timing could trim the peak by a few degrees, yet observed trends and short-range guidance show no credible pathway for sub-64°F readings. Traders are therefore positioning on the dominant outcome while monitoring the next NWS update for any late adjustments in steering flow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$46,548End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current National Weather Service and ensemble model forecasts indicate Chicago will reach daytime highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s on May 17 under a stable high-pressure ridge and southerly flow advecting milder Gulf air northward. This setup aligns with climatological May averages near 71°F at O’Hare and Midway, placing the probability of exceeding 64°F near certainty in trader consensus. Minor variations in boundary-layer mixing or lake-breeze timing could trim the peak by a few degrees, yet observed trends and short-range guidance show no credible pathway for sub-64°F readings. Traders are therefore positioning on the dominant outcome while monitoring the next NWS update for any late adjustments in steering flow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$46,548End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDCurrent National Weather Service and ensemble model forecasts indicate Chicago will reach daytime highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s on May 17 under a stable high-pressure ridge and southerly flow advecting milder Gulf air northward. This setup aligns with climatological May averages near 71°F at O’Hare and Midway, placing the probability of exceeding 64°F near certainty in trader consensus. Minor variations in boundary-layer mixing or lake-breeze timing could trim the peak by a few degrees, yet observed trends and short-range guidance show no credible pathway for sub-64°F readings. Traders are therefore positioning on the dominant outcome while monitoring the next NWS update for any late adjustments in steering flow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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