Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models now converge on an overnight low of exactly 17°C for Tokyo on May 16, driven by a dominant high-pressure ridge that maintains clear skies and restricts radiative cooling overnight. This positions the market-implied odds near 99.8% for the 17°C outcome, consistent with mid-May climatology at the Otemachi station where lows typically range 14–17°C and recent model runs show minimal spread in boundary-layer stability or wind speed. Traders treat the official JMA reading as the resolution benchmark, reflecting the wisdom of crowds assessing these narrow atmospheric conditions. A modest increase in cloud cover or localized urban heat-island amplification could still shift the final verified minimum by 1°C, though current data indicate such deviations are unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 16?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 16?
17°C 99.8%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$73,432 Vol.
$73,432 Vol.
May 16, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
100%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
17°C 99.8%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$73,432 Vol.
$73,432 Vol.
May 16, 2026
13°C or below
$5,317 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$9,627 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$8,294 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$4,490 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$5,747 Vol.
100%
18°C
$3,787 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$13,509 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$14,438 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$523 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$779 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$6,921 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models now converge on an overnight low of exactly 17°C for Tokyo on May 16, driven by a dominant high-pressure ridge that maintains clear skies and restricts radiative cooling overnight. This positions the market-implied odds near 99.8% for the 17°C outcome, consistent with mid-May climatology at the Otemachi station where lows typically range 14–17°C and recent model runs show minimal spread in boundary-layer stability or wind speed. Traders treat the official JMA reading as the resolution benchmark, reflecting the wisdom of crowds assessing these narrow atmospheric conditions. A modest increase in cloud cover or localized urban heat-island amplification could still shift the final verified minimum by 1°C, though current data indicate such deviations are unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$73,432End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models now converge on an overnight low of exactly 17°C for Tokyo on May 16, driven by a dominant high-pressure ridge that maintains clear skies and restricts radiative cooling overnight. This positions the market-implied odds near 99.8% for the 17°C outcome, consistent with mid-May climatology at the Otemachi station where lows typically range 14–17°C and recent model runs show minimal spread in boundary-layer stability or wind speed. Traders treat the official JMA reading as the resolution benchmark, reflecting the wisdom of crowds assessing these narrow atmospheric conditions. A modest increase in cloud cover or localized urban heat-island amplification could still shift the final verified minimum by 1°C, though current data indicate such deviations are unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$73,432End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTJapan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models now converge on an overnight low of exactly 17°C for Tokyo on May 16, driven by a dominant high-pressure ridge that maintains clear skies and restricts radiative cooling overnight. This positions the market-implied odds near 99.8% for the 17°C outcome, consistent with mid-May climatology at the Otemachi station where lows typically range 14–17°C and recent model runs show minimal spread in boundary-layer stability or wind speed. Traders treat the official JMA reading as the resolution benchmark, reflecting the wisdom of crowds assessing these narrow atmospheric conditions. A modest increase in cloud cover or localized urban heat-island amplification could still shift the final verified minimum by 1°C, though current data indicate such deviations are unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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