Current ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ECMWF place Tokyo’s expected overnight minimum near 19°C for May 19, reflecting light southerly winds and limited cloud cover that will moderate radiative cooling over the urban heat island. This consensus, combined with stable high-pressure conditions persisting through the weekend, underpins the narrow lead for the 19°C outcome while leaving room for slight upward shifts to 20°C if nocturnal stratus develops. Mid-May climatology typically features lows of 15–17°C, yet the current synoptic pattern has already produced warmer nights, narrowing the probability spread traders see between the top two bins. Model runs through the next 48 hours will determine whether any coastal advection or increased humidity alters the final minimum recorded at the official Haneda reference station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 19?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 19?
19°C 35%
18°C 19%
20°C 15%
21°C 9%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
2%
17°C
4%
18°C
19%
19°C
30%
20°C
21%
21°C
8%
22°C
5%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
1%
19°C 35%
18°C 19%
20°C 15%
21°C 9%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
14°C or below
$118 Vol.
1%
15°C
$36 Vol.
2%
16°C
$46 Vol.
2%
17°C
$15 Vol.
4%
18°C
$0 Vol.
19%
19°C
$6 Vol.
30%
20°C
$33 Vol.
21%
21°C
$21 Vol.
8%
22°C
$23 Vol.
5%
23°C
$57 Vol.
1%
24°C or higher
$207 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ECMWF place Tokyo’s expected overnight minimum near 19°C for May 19, reflecting light southerly winds and limited cloud cover that will moderate radiative cooling over the urban heat island. This consensus, combined with stable high-pressure conditions persisting through the weekend, underpins the narrow lead for the 19°C outcome while leaving room for slight upward shifts to 20°C if nocturnal stratus develops. Mid-May climatology typically features lows of 15–17°C, yet the current synoptic pattern has already produced warmer nights, narrowing the probability spread traders see between the top two bins. Model runs through the next 48 hours will determine whether any coastal advection or increased humidity alters the final minimum recorded at the official Haneda reference station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$562End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ECMWF place Tokyo’s expected overnight minimum near 19°C for May 19, reflecting light southerly winds and limited cloud cover that will moderate radiative cooling over the urban heat island. This consensus, combined with stable high-pressure conditions persisting through the weekend, underpins the narrow lead for the 19°C outcome while leaving room for slight upward shifts to 20°C if nocturnal stratus develops. Mid-May climatology typically features lows of 15–17°C, yet the current synoptic pattern has already produced warmer nights, narrowing the probability spread traders see between the top two bins. Model runs through the next 48 hours will determine whether any coastal advection or increased humidity alters the final minimum recorded at the official Haneda reference station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$562End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTCurrent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ECMWF place Tokyo’s expected overnight minimum near 19°C for May 19, reflecting light southerly winds and limited cloud cover that will moderate radiative cooling over the urban heat island. This consensus, combined with stable high-pressure conditions persisting through the weekend, underpins the narrow lead for the 19°C outcome while leaving room for slight upward shifts to 20°C if nocturnal stratus develops. Mid-May climatology typically features lows of 15–17°C, yet the current synoptic pattern has already produced warmer nights, narrowing the probability spread traders see between the top two bins. Model runs through the next 48 hours will determine whether any coastal advection or increased humidity alters the final minimum recorded at the official Haneda reference station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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