Current Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model consensus point to an overnight low near 19°C in Tokyo on May 18, driven by a mild southerly flow off the Pacific that limits radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology where lows typically range 15–18°C, yet recent warm anomalies have pushed the distribution higher, elevating the 19°C outcome to 45.5% implied probability while 18°C holds secondary support at 27.5%. Key variables include potential shifts in cloud cover or wind strength overnight, which could trim the low by 1–2°C if clearer conditions develop. Traders are watching the next JMA update and high-resolution model runs for any adjustment ahead of the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 18?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 18?
19°C 48%
18°C 29%
17°C 9%
20°C 6.3%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
9%
18°C
29%
19°C
48%
20°C
6%
21°C
3%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
1%
19°C 48%
18°C 29%
17°C 9%
20°C 6.3%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
13°C or below
$275 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$304 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$408 Vol.
1%
16°C
$79 Vol.
1%
17°C
$179 Vol.
9%
18°C
$337 Vol.
29%
19°C
$218 Vol.
48%
20°C
$115 Vol.
6%
21°C
$209 Vol.
3%
22°C
$453 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$1,910 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model consensus point to an overnight low near 19°C in Tokyo on May 18, driven by a mild southerly flow off the Pacific that limits radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology where lows typically range 15–18°C, yet recent warm anomalies have pushed the distribution higher, elevating the 19°C outcome to 45.5% implied probability while 18°C holds secondary support at 27.5%. Key variables include potential shifts in cloud cover or wind strength overnight, which could trim the low by 1–2°C if clearer conditions develop. Traders are watching the next JMA update and high-resolution model runs for any adjustment ahead of the resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$4,488End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model consensus point to an overnight low near 19°C in Tokyo on May 18, driven by a mild southerly flow off the Pacific that limits radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology where lows typically range 15–18°C, yet recent warm anomalies have pushed the distribution higher, elevating the 19°C outcome to 45.5% implied probability while 18°C holds secondary support at 27.5%. Key variables include potential shifts in cloud cover or wind strength overnight, which could trim the low by 1–2°C if clearer conditions develop. Traders are watching the next JMA update and high-resolution model runs for any adjustment ahead of the resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,488End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTCurrent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model consensus point to an overnight low near 19°C in Tokyo on May 18, driven by a mild southerly flow off the Pacific that limits radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology where lows typically range 15–18°C, yet recent warm anomalies have pushed the distribution higher, elevating the 19°C outcome to 45.5% implied probability while 18°C holds secondary support at 27.5%. Key variables include potential shifts in cloud cover or wind strength overnight, which could trim the low by 1–2°C if clearer conditions develop. Traders are watching the next JMA update and high-resolution model runs for any adjustment ahead of the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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