Ensemble forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models indicate Panama City highs near 32–33°C on May 18, driven by peak solar insolation near the summer solstice and a persistent warm southerly flow across the Isthmus. Afternoon convection typical of the early rainy season could cap temperatures through increased cloud cover and scattered showers, while clearer conditions would allow stronger surface heating. Recent model runs show modest spread around these values, consistent with historical May maxima averaging 31–34°C and limited variability from ENSO-neutral conditions. Traders appear to weigh the narrow gap between 32°C and 33°C outcomes against the timing of any convective initiation, with official Panamanian meteorological service guidance expected to refine the picture over the next 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Panama City on May 18?
Highest temperature in Panama City on May 18?
32°C 34%
31°C 22%
33°C or higher 15%
30°C 13%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
3%
28°C
3%
29°C
9%
30°C
13%
31°C
22%
32°C
34%
33°C or higher
15%
32°C 34%
31°C 22%
33°C or higher 15%
30°C 13%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
23°C or below
$107 Vol.
1%
24°C
$105 Vol.
1%
25°C
$65 Vol.
1%
26°C
$5 Vol.
2%
27°C
$35 Vol.
3%
28°C
$35 Vol.
3%
29°C
$0 Vol.
9%
30°C
$5 Vol.
13%
31°C
$0 Vol.
22%
32°C
$65 Vol.
34%
33°C or higher
$0 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models indicate Panama City highs near 32–33°C on May 18, driven by peak solar insolation near the summer solstice and a persistent warm southerly flow across the Isthmus. Afternoon convection typical of the early rainy season could cap temperatures through increased cloud cover and scattered showers, while clearer conditions would allow stronger surface heating. Recent model runs show modest spread around these values, consistent with historical May maxima averaging 31–34°C and limited variability from ENSO-neutral conditions. Traders appear to weigh the narrow gap between 32°C and 33°C outcomes against the timing of any convective initiation, with official Panamanian meteorological service guidance expected to refine the picture over the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$422End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMGThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models indicate Panama City highs near 32–33°C on May 18, driven by peak solar insolation near the summer solstice and a persistent warm southerly flow across the Isthmus. Afternoon convection typical of the early rainy season could cap temperatures through increased cloud cover and scattered showers, while clearer conditions would allow stronger surface heating. Recent model runs show modest spread around these values, consistent with historical May maxima averaging 31–34°C and limited variability from ENSO-neutral conditions. Traders appear to weigh the narrow gap between 32°C and 33°C outcomes against the timing of any convective initiation, with official Panamanian meteorological service guidance expected to refine the picture over the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$422End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMGEnsemble forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models indicate Panama City highs near 32–33°C on May 18, driven by peak solar insolation near the summer solstice and a persistent warm southerly flow across the Isthmus. Afternoon convection typical of the early rainy season could cap temperatures through increased cloud cover and scattered showers, while clearer conditions would allow stronger surface heating. Recent model runs show modest spread around these values, consistent with historical May maxima averaging 31–34°C and limited variability from ENSO-neutral conditions. Traders appear to weigh the narrow gap between 32°C and 33°C outcomes against the timing of any convective initiation, with official Panamanian meteorological service guidance expected to refine the picture over the next 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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