Latest National Weather Service guidance for Panama City, Florida, projects a high near 84°F (29°C) on May 16 under mostly sunny skies with light southwest winds, reflecting a building upper-level ridge that suppresses clouds and enhances daytime heating. Trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 31°C (28%) and 33°C or higher (27%), driven by model ensemble spread where some GFS and ECMWF members forecast peaks up to 90°F (32°C) amid low humidity and delayed sea breeze onset from the Gulf of Mexico. Differentiating factors include afternoon boundary layer mixing efficiency, soil moisture deficits amplifying heat, and precise measurement at Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport (ECP); coastal moderation could cap at 30°C, while prolonged sunshine favors 32°C+. New model runs expected overnight may refine this uncertainty ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Panama City on May 16?
Highest temperature in Panama City on May 16?
33°C or higher 63%
32°C 26%
31°C 13%
30°C 1.3%
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
13%
32°C
26%
33°C or higher
63%
33°C or higher 63%
32°C 26%
31°C 13%
30°C 1.3%
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
13%
32°C
26%
33°C or higher
63%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMGResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service guidance for Panama City, Florida, projects a high near 84°F (29°C) on May 16 under mostly sunny skies with light southwest winds, reflecting a building upper-level ridge that suppresses clouds and enhances daytime heating. Trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 31°C (28%) and 33°C or higher (27%), driven by model ensemble spread where some GFS and ECMWF members forecast peaks up to 90°F (32°C) amid low humidity and delayed sea breeze onset from the Gulf of Mexico. Differentiating factors include afternoon boundary layer mixing efficiency, soil moisture deficits amplifying heat, and precise measurement at Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport (ECP); coastal moderation could cap at 30°C, while prolonged sunshine favors 32°C+. New model runs expected overnight may refine this uncertainty ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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