Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward 22°C (33.5%) over 21°C (30.0%) for Moscow's highest temperature on May 14, reflecting latest forecast models like those aggregated on Yandex Weather projecting afternoon peaks near 22°C under partly cloudy skies with light south-southeasterly winds at 2-4 m/s fostering diurnal heating. This follows a sharp warming trend from May 12's cooler 17-18°C high amid clouds and light rain, with May 13 expected to hit 23°C under mostly clear conditions, introducing southerly flow ahead of a hot air mass from Kazakhstan arriving May 15-16. Key differentiators include cloud cover evolution—thicker afternoon clouds could cap at 21°C, while more sun favors 22-23°C—and minor model spreads in boundary layer forecasts. Watch evening updates from Russian Hydrometeorological Center and ECMWF runs, as observations tomorrow will refine short-range uncertainty typical in mid-May spring transitions above the 18-19°C climatological norm.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on May 14?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 14?
22°C 41%
21°C 32%
23°C 17%
20°C 8%
NEW
NEW
May 14, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
3%
20°C
8%
21°C
32%
22°C
41%
23°C
17%
24°C
4%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
1%
22°C 41%
21°C 32%
23°C 17%
20°C 8%
NEW
NEW
May 14, 2026
17°C or below
$1,550 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,160 Vol.
1%
19°C
$851 Vol.
3%
20°C
$1,023 Vol.
8%
21°C
$348 Vol.
32%
22°C
$364 Vol.
41%
23°C
$391 Vol.
17%
24°C
$623 Vol.
4%
25°C
$1,232 Vol.
1%
26°C
$375 Vol.
1%
27°C or higher
$1,655 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward 22°C (33.5%) over 21°C (30.0%) for Moscow's highest temperature on May 14, reflecting latest forecast models like those aggregated on Yandex Weather projecting afternoon peaks near 22°C under partly cloudy skies with light south-southeasterly winds at 2-4 m/s fostering diurnal heating. This follows a sharp warming trend from May 12's cooler 17-18°C high amid clouds and light rain, with May 13 expected to hit 23°C under mostly clear conditions, introducing southerly flow ahead of a hot air mass from Kazakhstan arriving May 15-16. Key differentiators include cloud cover evolution—thicker afternoon clouds could cap at 21°C, while more sun favors 22-23°C—and minor model spreads in boundary layer forecasts. Watch evening updates from Russian Hydrometeorological Center and ECMWF runs, as observations tomorrow will refine short-range uncertainty typical in mid-May spring transitions above the 18-19°C climatological norm.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Volume
$9,571End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:21 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward 22°C (33.5%) over 21°C (30.0%) for Moscow's highest temperature on May 14, reflecting latest forecast models like those aggregated on Yandex Weather projecting afternoon peaks near 22°C under partly cloudy skies with light south-southeasterly winds at 2-4 m/s fostering diurnal heating. This follows a sharp warming trend from May 12's cooler 17-18°C high amid clouds and light rain, with May 13 expected to hit 23°C under mostly clear conditions, introducing southerly flow ahead of a hot air mass from Kazakhstan arriving May 15-16. Key differentiators include cloud cover evolution—thicker afternoon clouds could cap at 21°C, while more sun favors 22-23°C—and minor model spreads in boundary layer forecasts. Watch evening updates from Russian Hydrometeorological Center and ECMWF runs, as observations tomorrow will refine short-range uncertainty typical in mid-May spring transitions above the 18-19°C climatological norm.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$9,571End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:21 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward 22°C (33.5%) over 21°C (30.0%) for Moscow's highest temperature on May 14, reflecting latest forecast models like those aggregated on Yandex Weather projecting afternoon peaks near 22°C under partly cloudy skies with light south-southeasterly winds at 2-4 m/s fostering diurnal heating. This follows a sharp warming trend from May 12's cooler 17-18°C high amid clouds and light rain, with May 13 expected to hit 23°C under mostly clear conditions, introducing southerly flow ahead of a hot air mass from Kazakhstan arriving May 15-16. Key differentiators include cloud cover evolution—thicker afternoon clouds could cap at 21°C, while more sun favors 22-23°C—and minor model spreads in boundary layer forecasts. Watch evening updates from Russian Hydrometeorological Center and ECMWF runs, as observations tomorrow will refine short-range uncertainty typical in mid-May spring transitions above the 18-19°C climatological norm.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions