Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project a daytime high near 21°C in Moscow on May 16, aligning with trader consensus at 33.5% implied probability, following today's observed peak of about 23°C under partly sunny skies and southeasterly winds. The clustered odds around 20–23°C reflect model spread on boundary layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and potential convective showers from lingering moisture, which could cap heating at 19–20°C or allow 22°C+ with persistent clear skies and upper-level ridging. Mid-May climatology averages 18–19°C at Vnukovo Airport, but recent above-normal warmth drives elevated probabilities. Key variables include insolation duration and low-level humidity; watch 00Z model updates and hourly NOAA observations for shifts ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on May 16?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 16?
21°C 31%
22°C 29.8%
23°C or higher 18.8%
20°C 19%
NEW
$12,617 Vol.
NEW
$12,617 Vol.
May 16, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
4%
20°C
19%
21°C
31%
22°C
30%
23°C or higher
19%
21°C 31%
22°C 29.8%
23°C or higher 18.8%
20°C 19%
NEW
$12,617 Vol.
NEW
$12,617 Vol.
May 16, 2026
13°C or below
$1,499 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$681 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$521 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,064 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$2,047 Vol.
1%
18°C
$1,960 Vol.
2%
19°C
$1,142 Vol.
4%
20°C
$380 Vol.
19%
21°C
$535 Vol.
31%
22°C
$499 Vol.
30%
23°C or higher
$2,316 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project a daytime high near 21°C in Moscow on May 16, aligning with trader consensus at 33.5% implied probability, following today's observed peak of about 23°C under partly sunny skies and southeasterly winds. The clustered odds around 20–23°C reflect model spread on boundary layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and potential convective showers from lingering moisture, which could cap heating at 19–20°C or allow 22°C+ with persistent clear skies and upper-level ridging. Mid-May climatology averages 18–19°C at Vnukovo Airport, but recent above-normal warmth drives elevated probabilities. Key variables include insolation duration and low-level humidity; watch 00Z model updates and hourly NOAA observations for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:27 AM ET
Volume
$12,617End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project a daytime high near 21°C in Moscow on May 16, aligning with trader consensus at 33.5% implied probability, following today's observed peak of about 23°C under partly sunny skies and southeasterly winds. The clustered odds around 20–23°C reflect model spread on boundary layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and potential convective showers from lingering moisture, which could cap heating at 19–20°C or allow 22°C+ with persistent clear skies and upper-level ridging. Mid-May climatology averages 18–19°C at Vnukovo Airport, but recent above-normal warmth drives elevated probabilities. Key variables include insolation duration and low-level humidity; watch 00Z model updates and hourly NOAA observations for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$12,617End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project a daytime high near 21°C in Moscow on May 16, aligning with trader consensus at 33.5% implied probability, following today's observed peak of about 23°C under partly sunny skies and southeasterly winds. The clustered odds around 20–23°C reflect model spread on boundary layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and potential convective showers from lingering moisture, which could cap heating at 19–20°C or allow 22°C+ with persistent clear skies and upper-level ridging. Mid-May climatology averages 18–19°C at Vnukovo Airport, but recent above-normal warmth drives elevated probabilities. Key variables include insolation duration and low-level humidity; watch 00Z model updates and hourly NOAA observations for shifts ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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