Recent National Weather Service forecasts and short-range model consensus indicate a high near 70°F in Los Angeles on May 17, driven by gradual clearing after morning marine-layer clouds and light southwesterly onshore flow. This setup favors the leading 68-69°F bin at 44% implied probability, as the sea breeze typically caps daytime warming below the May average of 74°F at Los Angeles International Airport. Ensemble guidance shows limited potential for stronger warming to 72°F or above, reflected in the 24% odds for 70-71°F and only 5.6% for 72-73°F. Traders are weighing the timing of clearing against persistent coastal moderation, with the next model runs and official updates likely to refine the exact peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on May 17?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on May 17?
68-69°F 44%
66-67°F 26%
70-71°F 25%
72-73°F 5.4%
NEW
$12,725 Vol.
NEW
$12,725 Vol.
May 17, 2026
55°F or below
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
4%
66-67°F
26%
68-69°F
44%
70-71°F
25%
72-73°F
5%
74°F or higher
2%
68-69°F 44%
66-67°F 26%
70-71°F 25%
72-73°F 5.4%
NEW
$12,725 Vol.
NEW
$12,725 Vol.
May 17, 2026
55°F or below
$1,257 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$1,810 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$1,283 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$1,190 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$1,514 Vol.
1%
64-65°F
$1,919 Vol.
4%
66-67°F
$730 Vol.
26%
68-69°F
$834 Vol.
44%
70-71°F
$597 Vol.
25%
72-73°F
$586 Vol.
5%
74°F or higher
$1,024 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and short-range model consensus indicate a high near 70°F in Los Angeles on May 17, driven by gradual clearing after morning marine-layer clouds and light southwesterly onshore flow. This setup favors the leading 68-69°F bin at 44% implied probability, as the sea breeze typically caps daytime warming below the May average of 74°F at Los Angeles International Airport. Ensemble guidance shows limited potential for stronger warming to 72°F or above, reflected in the 24% odds for 70-71°F and only 5.6% for 72-73°F. Traders are weighing the timing of clearing against persistent coastal moderation, with the next model runs and official updates likely to refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$12,725End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and short-range model consensus indicate a high near 70°F in Los Angeles on May 17, driven by gradual clearing after morning marine-layer clouds and light southwesterly onshore flow. This setup favors the leading 68-69°F bin at 44% implied probability, as the sea breeze typically caps daytime warming below the May average of 74°F at Los Angeles International Airport. Ensemble guidance shows limited potential for stronger warming to 72°F or above, reflected in the 24% odds for 70-71°F and only 5.6% for 72-73°F. Traders are weighing the timing of clearing against persistent coastal moderation, with the next model runs and official updates likely to refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$12,725End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXRecent National Weather Service forecasts and short-range model consensus indicate a high near 70°F in Los Angeles on May 17, driven by gradual clearing after morning marine-layer clouds and light southwesterly onshore flow. This setup favors the leading 68-69°F bin at 44% implied probability, as the sea breeze typically caps daytime warming below the May average of 74°F at Los Angeles International Airport. Ensemble guidance shows limited potential for stronger warming to 72°F or above, reflected in the 24% odds for 70-71°F and only 5.6% for 72-73°F. Traders are weighing the timing of clearing against persistent coastal moderation, with the next model runs and official updates likely to refine the exact peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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