Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Los Angeles point to persistent onshore flow and a marine layer stratocumulus deck that is expected to limit afternoon warming, positioning the 66-67°F bin as the leading outcome with 51% implied probability. Cool coastal sea surface temperatures sustain overnight cloud cover, delaying solar insolation and holding highs below the May climatological average of 69°F at official stations like KLAX. Model runs from GFS and ECMWF show modest spread in boundary-layer mixing depth, with lighter winds or drier aloft air potentially allowing earlier burn-off and a shift toward the 68-69°F range now at 33.5%. Traders are weighting these near-term atmospheric conditions over longer-term warming trends, as the marine influence typically dominates mid-May coastal readings. Overnight forecast revisions will refine the resolution criteria ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on May 16?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on May 16?
66-67°F 51%
68-69°F 33%
70-71°F 8%
64-65°F 6.6%
$23,877 Vol.
$23,877 Vol.
May 16, 2026
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
7%
66-67°F
51%
68-69°F
33%
70-71°F
8%
72°F or higher
1%
66-67°F 51%
68-69°F 33%
70-71°F 8%
64-65°F 6.6%
$23,877 Vol.
$23,877 Vol.
May 16, 2026
60-61°F
$2,222 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$3,125 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$1,906 Vol.
7%
66-67°F
$3,292 Vol.
51%
68-69°F
$3,452 Vol.
33%
70-71°F
$2,048 Vol.
8%
72°F or higher
$2,757 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Los Angeles point to persistent onshore flow and a marine layer stratocumulus deck that is expected to limit afternoon warming, positioning the 66-67°F bin as the leading outcome with 51% implied probability. Cool coastal sea surface temperatures sustain overnight cloud cover, delaying solar insolation and holding highs below the May climatological average of 69°F at official stations like KLAX. Model runs from GFS and ECMWF show modest spread in boundary-layer mixing depth, with lighter winds or drier aloft air potentially allowing earlier burn-off and a shift toward the 68-69°F range now at 33.5%. Traders are weighting these near-term atmospheric conditions over longer-term warming trends, as the marine influence typically dominates mid-May coastal readings. Overnight forecast revisions will refine the resolution criteria ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:26 AM ET
Volume
$23,877End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:26 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Los Angeles point to persistent onshore flow and a marine layer stratocumulus deck that is expected to limit afternoon warming, positioning the 66-67°F bin as the leading outcome with 51% implied probability. Cool coastal sea surface temperatures sustain overnight cloud cover, delaying solar insolation and holding highs below the May climatological average of 69°F at official stations like KLAX. Model runs from GFS and ECMWF show modest spread in boundary-layer mixing depth, with lighter winds or drier aloft air potentially allowing earlier burn-off and a shift toward the 68-69°F range now at 33.5%. Traders are weighting these near-term atmospheric conditions over longer-term warming trends, as the marine influence typically dominates mid-May coastal readings. Overnight forecast revisions will refine the resolution criteria ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$23,877End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:26 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Los Angeles point to persistent onshore flow and a marine layer stratocumulus deck that is expected to limit afternoon warming, positioning the 66-67°F bin as the leading outcome with 51% implied probability. Cool coastal sea surface temperatures sustain overnight cloud cover, delaying solar insolation and holding highs below the May climatological average of 69°F at official stations like KLAX. Model runs from GFS and ECMWF show modest spread in boundary-layer mixing depth, with lighter winds or drier aloft air potentially allowing earlier burn-off and a shift toward the 68-69°F range now at 33.5%. Traders are weighting these near-term atmospheric conditions over longer-term warming trends, as the marine influence typically dominates mid-May coastal readings. Overnight forecast revisions will refine the resolution criteria ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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