Current forecast models indicate a minimum temperature near 12–13°C for London on May 20, reflecting mild southerly airflow and limited overnight cooling under partly cloudy skies. Official guidance from the Met Office and ensemble runs show daytime highs reaching 21–22°C before temperatures ease gradually after sunset, with dew points supporting lows in this range rather than the seasonal average near 9°C. Recent model updates have narrowed the spread, reducing the likelihood of sharper drops below 11°C while capping upside above 14°C absent stronger high-pressure development. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 12°C and 13°C because these outcomes align with the consensus trajectory, though small shifts in cloud cover or wind could still alter the final reading before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on May 20?
Lowest temperature in London on May 20?
13°C 34%
14°C 16%
12°C 11%
11°C 11%
NEW
NEW
May 20, 2026
7°C or below
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
5%
10°C
7%
11°C
19%
12°C
11%
13°C
26%
14°C
10%
15°C
7%
16°C
5%
17°C or higher
2%
13°C 34%
14°C 16%
12°C 11%
11°C 11%
NEW
NEW
May 20, 2026
7°C or below
$60 Vol.
1%
8°C
$63 Vol.
1%
9°C
$6 Vol.
5%
10°C
$6 Vol.
7%
11°C
$25 Vol.
19%
12°C
$6 Vol.
11%
13°C
$16 Vol.
26%
14°C
$6 Vol.
10%
15°C
$6 Vol.
7%
16°C
$14 Vol.
5%
17°C or higher
$79 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast models indicate a minimum temperature near 12–13°C for London on May 20, reflecting mild southerly airflow and limited overnight cooling under partly cloudy skies. Official guidance from the Met Office and ensemble runs show daytime highs reaching 21–22°C before temperatures ease gradually after sunset, with dew points supporting lows in this range rather than the seasonal average near 9°C. Recent model updates have narrowed the spread, reducing the likelihood of sharper drops below 11°C while capping upside above 14°C absent stronger high-pressure development. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 12°C and 13°C because these outcomes align with the consensus trajectory, though small shifts in cloud cover or wind could still alter the final reading before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$287End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast models indicate a minimum temperature near 12–13°C for London on May 20, reflecting mild southerly airflow and limited overnight cooling under partly cloudy skies. Official guidance from the Met Office and ensemble runs show daytime highs reaching 21–22°C before temperatures ease gradually after sunset, with dew points supporting lows in this range rather than the seasonal average near 9°C. Recent model updates have narrowed the spread, reducing the likelihood of sharper drops below 11°C while capping upside above 14°C absent stronger high-pressure development. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 12°C and 13°C because these outcomes align with the consensus trajectory, though small shifts in cloud cover or wind could still alter the final reading before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$287End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCCurrent forecast models indicate a minimum temperature near 12–13°C for London on May 20, reflecting mild southerly airflow and limited overnight cooling under partly cloudy skies. Official guidance from the Met Office and ensemble runs show daytime highs reaching 21–22°C before temperatures ease gradually after sunset, with dew points supporting lows in this range rather than the seasonal average near 9°C. Recent model updates have narrowed the spread, reducing the likelihood of sharper drops below 11°C while capping upside above 14°C absent stronger high-pressure development. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 12°C and 13°C because these outcomes align with the consensus trajectory, though small shifts in cloud cover or wind could still alter the final reading before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions