Trader consensus favors a mild overnight low of 12°C or higher at 47% for London on May 18, reflecting the Met Office's latest 5-day forecast of drier, settling conditions after a sharp cold snap that saw 2.5°C on May 12. Westerly winds are steering milder Atlantic air into the UK, with UKMO and ECMWF model ensembles projecting lows of 10–13°C under an emerging high-pressure ridge, though variability in cloud cover and ridge timing supports secondary bets on 9°C (27%) and 8°C (20%). Historical mid-May lows at Heathrow average 9–10°C on the Saffir-Simpson scale-irrelevant here but underscoring climatological norms. Uncertainty persists in ensemble spreads; monitor Met Office advisories through May 17 for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on May 18?
Lowest temperature in London on May 18?
12°C or higher 40.5%
8°C 21%
10°C 21%
9°C 19%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
2°C or below
1%
3°C
1%
4°C
4%
5°C
6%
6°C
9%
7°C
19%
8°C
21%
9°C
24%
10°C
21%
11°C
5%
12°C or higher
41%
12°C or higher 40.5%
8°C 21%
10°C 21%
9°C 19%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
2°C or below
$52 Vol.
1%
3°C
$52 Vol.
1%
4°C
$15 Vol.
4%
5°C
$39 Vol.
6%
6°C
$0 Vol.
9%
7°C
$0 Vol.
19%
8°C
$0 Vol.
21%
9°C
$10 Vol.
24%
10°C
$0 Vol.
21%
11°C
$0 Vol.
5%
12°C or higher
$0 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors a mild overnight low of 12°C or higher at 47% for London on May 18, reflecting the Met Office's latest 5-day forecast of drier, settling conditions after a sharp cold snap that saw 2.5°C on May 12. Westerly winds are steering milder Atlantic air into the UK, with UKMO and ECMWF model ensembles projecting lows of 10–13°C under an emerging high-pressure ridge, though variability in cloud cover and ridge timing supports secondary bets on 9°C (27%) and 8°C (20%). Historical mid-May lows at Heathrow average 9–10°C on the Saffir-Simpson scale-irrelevant here but underscoring climatological norms. Uncertainty persists in ensemble spreads; monitor Met Office advisories through May 17 for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$168End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors a mild overnight low of 12°C or higher at 47% for London on May 18, reflecting the Met Office's latest 5-day forecast of drier, settling conditions after a sharp cold snap that saw 2.5°C on May 12. Westerly winds are steering milder Atlantic air into the UK, with UKMO and ECMWF model ensembles projecting lows of 10–13°C under an emerging high-pressure ridge, though variability in cloud cover and ridge timing supports secondary bets on 9°C (27%) and 8°C (20%). Historical mid-May lows at Heathrow average 9–10°C on the Saffir-Simpson scale-irrelevant here but underscoring climatological norms. Uncertainty persists in ensemble spreads; monitor Met Office advisories through May 17 for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$168End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCTrader consensus favors a mild overnight low of 12°C or higher at 47% for London on May 18, reflecting the Met Office's latest 5-day forecast of drier, settling conditions after a sharp cold snap that saw 2.5°C on May 12. Westerly winds are steering milder Atlantic air into the UK, with UKMO and ECMWF model ensembles projecting lows of 10–13°C under an emerging high-pressure ridge, though variability in cloud cover and ridge timing supports secondary bets on 9°C (27%) and 8°C (20%). Historical mid-May lows at Heathrow average 9–10°C on the Saffir-Simpson scale-irrelevant here but underscoring climatological norms. Uncertainty persists in ensemble spreads; monitor Met Office advisories through May 17 for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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