Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 6°C (31% implied probability) as London's lowest temperature at City Airport on May 15, closely followed by 7°C (21%) and 5°C (14%), aligning with latest Met Office and BBC Weather forecasts projecting nighttime minima of 5-7°C under cloudy skies with light showers and northerly gusts up to 23 mph. This cool positioning stems from a persistent northerly airflow delivering below-average May conditions, continuing scattered showers and brisk winds seen over the past week. High uncertainty in the broad distribution arises from key variables like overnight cloud cover—thicker layers trap heat to favor 7-8°C, while breaks enable radiative cooling toward 4-5°C—and evening precipitation or wind mixing. Updated Met Office model runs expected daily could refine odds before official observations resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on May 15?
Lowest temperature in London on May 15?
6°C 32%
7°C 26%
5°C 21%
8°C 7%
NEW
NEW
May 15, 2026
-1°C or below
<1%
0°C
1%
1°C
1%
2°C
1%
3°C
1%
4°C
4%
5°C
18%
6°C
32%
7°C
28%
8°C
11%
9°C or higher
4%
6°C 32%
7°C 26%
5°C 21%
8°C 7%
NEW
NEW
May 15, 2026
-1°C or below
$578 Vol.
<1%
0°C
$5 Vol.
1%
1°C
$16 Vol.
1%
2°C
$16 Vol.
1%
3°C
$59 Vol.
1%
4°C
$18 Vol.
4%
5°C
$122 Vol.
18%
6°C
$7 Vol.
32%
7°C
$28 Vol.
28%
8°C
$21 Vol.
11%
9°C or higher
$69 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 6°C (31% implied probability) as London's lowest temperature at City Airport on May 15, closely followed by 7°C (21%) and 5°C (14%), aligning with latest Met Office and BBC Weather forecasts projecting nighttime minima of 5-7°C under cloudy skies with light showers and northerly gusts up to 23 mph. This cool positioning stems from a persistent northerly airflow delivering below-average May conditions, continuing scattered showers and brisk winds seen over the past week. High uncertainty in the broad distribution arises from key variables like overnight cloud cover—thicker layers trap heat to favor 7-8°C, while breaks enable radiative cooling toward 4-5°C—and evening precipitation or wind mixing. Updated Met Office model runs expected daily could refine odds before official observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 7:06 PM ET
Volume
$933End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 7:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 6°C (31% implied probability) as London's lowest temperature at City Airport on May 15, closely followed by 7°C (21%) and 5°C (14%), aligning with latest Met Office and BBC Weather forecasts projecting nighttime minima of 5-7°C under cloudy skies with light showers and northerly gusts up to 23 mph. This cool positioning stems from a persistent northerly airflow delivering below-average May conditions, continuing scattered showers and brisk winds seen over the past week. High uncertainty in the broad distribution arises from key variables like overnight cloud cover—thicker layers trap heat to favor 7-8°C, while breaks enable radiative cooling toward 4-5°C—and evening precipitation or wind mixing. Updated Met Office model runs expected daily could refine odds before official observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$933End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 7:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 6°C (31% implied probability) as London's lowest temperature at City Airport on May 15, closely followed by 7°C (21%) and 5°C (14%), aligning with latest Met Office and BBC Weather forecasts projecting nighttime minima of 5-7°C under cloudy skies with light showers and northerly gusts up to 23 mph. This cool positioning stems from a persistent northerly airflow delivering below-average May conditions, continuing scattered showers and brisk winds seen over the past week. High uncertainty in the broad distribution arises from key variables like overnight cloud cover—thicker layers trap heat to favor 7-8°C, while breaks enable radiative cooling toward 4-5°C—and evening precipitation or wind mixing. Updated Met Office model runs expected daily could refine odds before official observations resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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