The overwhelming market consensus on a 25°C minimum for Hong Kong on May 15 reflects direct observational data from the Hong Kong Observatory’s official recording station, which captured this exact overnight low under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Mid-May climatology in the region typically features nighttime temperatures in the mid-20s Celsius, supported by consistent output from major forecast models such as ECMWF and GFS showing little deviation from seasonal baselines. Only a post-event revision to the primary station reading or an unusually pronounced urban heat-island anomaly would realistically shift the recorded value, scenarios that remain statistically rare for this established monitoring network.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
25°C 99.9%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$63,273 Vol.
$63,273 Vol.
May 15, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.9%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$63,273 Vol.
$63,273 Vol.
May 15, 2026
18°C or below
$2,490 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,286 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$2,298 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,278 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$3,789 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$5,072 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$12,238 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$8,640 Vol.
100%
26°C
$12,002 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$8,229 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$3,951 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The overwhelming market consensus on a 25°C minimum for Hong Kong on May 15 reflects direct observational data from the Hong Kong Observatory’s official recording station, which captured this exact overnight low under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Mid-May climatology in the region typically features nighttime temperatures in the mid-20s Celsius, supported by consistent output from major forecast models such as ECMWF and GFS showing little deviation from seasonal baselines. Only a post-event revision to the primary station reading or an unusually pronounced urban heat-island anomaly would realistically shift the recorded value, scenarios that remain statistically rare for this established monitoring network.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volume
$63,273End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The overwhelming market consensus on a 25°C minimum for Hong Kong on May 15 reflects direct observational data from the Hong Kong Observatory’s official recording station, which captured this exact overnight low under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Mid-May climatology in the region typically features nighttime temperatures in the mid-20s Celsius, supported by consistent output from major forecast models such as ECMWF and GFS showing little deviation from seasonal baselines. Only a post-event revision to the primary station reading or an unusually pronounced urban heat-island anomaly would realistically shift the recorded value, scenarios that remain statistically rare for this established monitoring network.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$63,273End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The overwhelming market consensus on a 25°C minimum for Hong Kong on May 15 reflects direct observational data from the Hong Kong Observatory’s official recording station, which captured this exact overnight low under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Mid-May climatology in the region typically features nighttime temperatures in the mid-20s Celsius, supported by consistent output from major forecast models such as ECMWF and GFS showing little deviation from seasonal baselines. Only a post-event revision to the primary station reading or an unusually pronounced urban heat-island anomaly would realistically shift the recorded value, scenarios that remain statistically rare for this established monitoring network.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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