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icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 18?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 18?

icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 18?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 18?

May 15

May 16

May 17

May 18

May 15

May 16

May 17

May 18

25°C 28%

24°C 26%

28°C or higher 21.0%

26°C 7%

Polymarket
NEW

25°C 28%

24°C 26%

28°C or higher 21.0%

26°C 7%

Polymarket
NEW

18°C or below

$314 Vol.

<1%

19°C

$379 Vol.

<1%

20°C

$153 Vol.

1%

21°C

$118 Vol.

1%

22°C

$105 Vol.

4%

23°C

$3 Vol.

6%

24°C

$0 Vol.

26%

25°C

$28 Vol.

28%

26°C

$5 Vol.

7%

27°C

$67 Vol.

2%

28°C or higher

$256 Vol.

21%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated May 14, projects a 25–29°C temperature range for May 18 under mainly cloudy conditions with a few showers and southeast winds force 4–5, centering trader consensus on a nocturnal minimum near 25°C while allowing for nearby outcomes like 24°C or 26°C. The closely matched probabilities reflect uncertainty from a lingering trough of low pressure over the northern South China Sea, which boosts cloud cover and high relative humidity (75–95%) to trap heat and curb radiative cooling below 23–24°C, though partial clearing or stronger winds could dip to 23°C. Mid-May climatology averages ~24°C lows, with this season's above-normal temperatures adding warmth; watch HKO's weekend updates for refined model runs.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,428
End Date
May 18, 2026
Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated May 14, projects a 25–29°C temperature range for May 18 under mainly cloudy conditions with a few showers and southeast winds force 4–5, centering trader consensus on a nocturnal minimum near 25°C while allowing for nearby outcomes like 24°C or 26°C. The closely matched probabilities reflect uncertainty from a lingering trough of low pressure over the northern South China Sea, which boosts cloud cover and high relative humidity (75–95%) to trap heat and curb radiative cooling below 23–24°C, though partial clearing or stronger winds could dip to 23°C. Mid-May climatology averages ~24°C lows, with this season's above-normal temperatures adding warmth; watch HKO's weekend updates for refined model runs.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,428
End Date
May 18, 2026
Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 18?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "25°C" at 28%, followed by "24°C" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 18?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 18?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 18?" is "25°C" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "24°C" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 18?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.