Current forecast models from the National Weather Service and private meteorology sources show Houston under a persistent southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico on May 17, with afternoon highs expected to reach the mid-to-upper 80s. This pattern aligns with mid-May climatology, where the average daily maximum at Houston Intercontinental Airport is 86 °F. Strong solar heating combined with high dew points supports rapid warming after sunrise, making an 86 °F or higher peak the most probable outcome under the market-implied odds. A late-arriving cold front or widespread cloud cover from overnight convection could cap temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s, but guidance through the latest model runs shows no such disruption in the next 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on May 17?
Highest temperature in Houston on May 17?
86°F or higher 91.1%
84-85°F 9%
82-83°F 1.4%
80-81°F <1%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
9%
86°F or higher
91%
86°F or higher 91.1%
84-85°F 9%
82-83°F 1.4%
80-81°F <1%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
67°F or below
$361 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$1,053 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$2,678 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$366 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$434 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$245 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$133 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$692 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$303 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$660 Vol.
9%
86°F or higher
$367 Vol.
91%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast models from the National Weather Service and private meteorology sources show Houston under a persistent southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico on May 17, with afternoon highs expected to reach the mid-to-upper 80s. This pattern aligns with mid-May climatology, where the average daily maximum at Houston Intercontinental Airport is 86 °F. Strong solar heating combined with high dew points supports rapid warming after sunrise, making an 86 °F or higher peak the most probable outcome under the market-implied odds. A late-arriving cold front or widespread cloud cover from overnight convection could cap temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s, but guidance through the latest model runs shows no such disruption in the next 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$7,292End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast models from the National Weather Service and private meteorology sources show Houston under a persistent southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico on May 17, with afternoon highs expected to reach the mid-to-upper 80s. This pattern aligns with mid-May climatology, where the average daily maximum at Houston Intercontinental Airport is 86 °F. Strong solar heating combined with high dew points supports rapid warming after sunrise, making an 86 °F or higher peak the most probable outcome under the market-implied odds. A late-arriving cold front or widespread cloud cover from overnight convection could cap temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s, but guidance through the latest model runs shows no such disruption in the next 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,292End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUCurrent forecast models from the National Weather Service and private meteorology sources show Houston under a persistent southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico on May 17, with afternoon highs expected to reach the mid-to-upper 80s. This pattern aligns with mid-May climatology, where the average daily maximum at Houston Intercontinental Airport is 86 °F. Strong solar heating combined with high dew points supports rapid warming after sunrise, making an 86 °F or higher peak the most probable outcome under the market-implied odds. A late-arriving cold front or widespread cloud cover from overnight convection could cap temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s, but guidance through the latest model runs shows no such disruption in the next 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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