Recent National Weather Service model consensus projects building high pressure over the region, allowing partial marine layer burn-off and daytime highs of 68–72°F in San Francisco on May 18 under sunny to partly cloudy skies. This aligns with the market’s 92.5% implied probability for 68°F or higher, as traders incorporate the latest runs showing reduced onshore flow and temperatures 3–5°F above the mid-May climatological average of 65–67°F. Key resolution thresholds hinge on official readings at San Francisco International Airport, where hourly updates through the 18th will confirm the peak. Persistent stratus or stronger westerly winds remain the primary variables that could limit the high to the 64–67°F range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on May 18?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on May 18?
68°F or higher 94%
64-65°F 6%
66-67°F 5%
62-63°F 2.0%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
49°F or below
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
1%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
2%
62-63°F
2%
64-65°F
6%
66-67°F
5%
68°F or higher
94%
68°F or higher 94%
64-65°F 6%
66-67°F 5%
62-63°F 2.0%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
49°F or below
$108 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$105 Vol.
<1%
52-53°F
$105 Vol.
1%
54-55°F
$105 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$105 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$117 Vol.
1%
60-61°F
$5 Vol.
2%
62-63°F
$5 Vol.
2%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
6%
66-67°F
$28 Vol.
5%
68°F or higher
$25 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service model consensus projects building high pressure over the region, allowing partial marine layer burn-off and daytime highs of 68–72°F in San Francisco on May 18 under sunny to partly cloudy skies. This aligns with the market’s 92.5% implied probability for 68°F or higher, as traders incorporate the latest runs showing reduced onshore flow and temperatures 3–5°F above the mid-May climatological average of 65–67°F. Key resolution thresholds hinge on official readings at San Francisco International Airport, where hourly updates through the 18th will confirm the peak. Persistent stratus or stronger westerly winds remain the primary variables that could limit the high to the 64–67°F range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$708End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service model consensus projects building high pressure over the region, allowing partial marine layer burn-off and daytime highs of 68–72°F in San Francisco on May 18 under sunny to partly cloudy skies. This aligns with the market’s 92.5% implied probability for 68°F or higher, as traders incorporate the latest runs showing reduced onshore flow and temperatures 3–5°F above the mid-May climatological average of 65–67°F. Key resolution thresholds hinge on official readings at San Francisco International Airport, where hourly updates through the 18th will confirm the peak. Persistent stratus or stronger westerly winds remain the primary variables that could limit the high to the 64–67°F range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$708End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFORecent National Weather Service model consensus projects building high pressure over the region, allowing partial marine layer burn-off and daytime highs of 68–72°F in San Francisco on May 18 under sunny to partly cloudy skies. This aligns with the market’s 92.5% implied probability for 68°F or higher, as traders incorporate the latest runs showing reduced onshore flow and temperatures 3–5°F above the mid-May climatological average of 65–67°F. Key resolution thresholds hinge on official readings at San Francisco International Airport, where hourly updates through the 18th will confirm the peak. Persistent stratus or stronger westerly winds remain the primary variables that could limit the high to the 64–67°F range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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