Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51.5% implied probability for San Francisco's highest temperature reaching 68°F or higher on May 17, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast discussion highlighting mild ridging aloft yielding coastal highs in the 60s to lower 70s amid clear skies early in the weekend. Persistent onshore flow from a sharpening pressure gradient—tied to an upper trough stalling over the Pacific Northwest—strengthens northwest winds to 45-55 mph gusts, fueling a deep marine layer that tempers warming through stratus clouds and coastal jet dynamics, with Neighborhood Blend Model outputs adjusted downward 3-5°F for variability. Recent observations confirm cooler-than-normal trends, like May 12's 62°F high versus the 68°F climatological average, but Saturday's potential for partial burn-off supports the slight edge for upper-60s peaks; watch Sunday morning's updated GFS/ECMWF runs and NWS advisories for refinements ahead of resolution based on official KSFO measurements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on May 17?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on May 17?
68°F or higher 49%
66-67°F 29%
64-65°F 15%
62-63°F 8%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
49°F or below
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
1%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
4%
62-63°F
8%
64-65°F
15%
66-67°F
29%
68°F or higher
49%
68°F or higher 49%
66-67°F 29%
64-65°F 15%
62-63°F 8%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
49°F or below
$361 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$210 Vol.
<1%
52-53°F
$106 Vol.
1%
54-55°F
$111 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$75 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$15 Vol.
1%
60-61°F
$1 Vol.
4%
62-63°F
$119 Vol.
8%
64-65°F
$6 Vol.
15%
66-67°F
$61 Vol.
29%
68°F or higher
$55 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51.5% implied probability for San Francisco's highest temperature reaching 68°F or higher on May 17, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast discussion highlighting mild ridging aloft yielding coastal highs in the 60s to lower 70s amid clear skies early in the weekend. Persistent onshore flow from a sharpening pressure gradient—tied to an upper trough stalling over the Pacific Northwest—strengthens northwest winds to 45-55 mph gusts, fueling a deep marine layer that tempers warming through stratus clouds and coastal jet dynamics, with Neighborhood Blend Model outputs adjusted downward 3-5°F for variability. Recent observations confirm cooler-than-normal trends, like May 12's 62°F high versus the 68°F climatological average, but Saturday's potential for partial burn-off supports the slight edge for upper-60s peaks; watch Sunday morning's updated GFS/ECMWF runs and NWS advisories for refinements ahead of resolution based on official KSFO measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$1,118End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51.5% implied probability for San Francisco's highest temperature reaching 68°F or higher on May 17, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast discussion highlighting mild ridging aloft yielding coastal highs in the 60s to lower 70s amid clear skies early in the weekend. Persistent onshore flow from a sharpening pressure gradient—tied to an upper trough stalling over the Pacific Northwest—strengthens northwest winds to 45-55 mph gusts, fueling a deep marine layer that tempers warming through stratus clouds and coastal jet dynamics, with Neighborhood Blend Model outputs adjusted downward 3-5°F for variability. Recent observations confirm cooler-than-normal trends, like May 12's 62°F high versus the 68°F climatological average, but Saturday's potential for partial burn-off supports the slight edge for upper-60s peaks; watch Sunday morning's updated GFS/ECMWF runs and NWS advisories for refinements ahead of resolution based on official KSFO measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,118End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51.5% implied probability for San Francisco's highest temperature reaching 68°F or higher on May 17, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast discussion highlighting mild ridging aloft yielding coastal highs in the 60s to lower 70s amid clear skies early in the weekend. Persistent onshore flow from a sharpening pressure gradient—tied to an upper trough stalling over the Pacific Northwest—strengthens northwest winds to 45-55 mph gusts, fueling a deep marine layer that tempers warming through stratus clouds and coastal jet dynamics, with Neighborhood Blend Model outputs adjusted downward 3-5°F for variability. Recent observations confirm cooler-than-normal trends, like May 12's 62°F high versus the 68°F climatological average, but Saturday's potential for partial burn-off supports the slight edge for upper-60s peaks; watch Sunday morning's updated GFS/ECMWF runs and NWS advisories for refinements ahead of resolution based on official KSFO measurements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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