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icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 19?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 19?

icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 19?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 19?

May 15

May 16

May 17

May 18

May 15

May 16

May 17

May 18

26°C 26%

24°C 24%

25°C 22%

27°C 19%

Polymarket
NEW

26°C 26%

24°C 24%

25°C 22%

27°C 19%

Polymarket
NEW

19°C or below

$18 Vol.

5%

20°C

$281 Vol.

4%

21°C

$281 Vol.

5%

22°C

$0 Vol.

11%

23°C

$0 Vol.

17%

24°C

$0 Vol.

24%

25°C

$0 Vol.

22%

26°C

$0 Vol.

26%

27°C

$0 Vol.

19%

28°C

$162 Vol.

1%

29°C or higher

$116 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in forecast models for Hong Kong's lowest temperature at the Observatory on May 19, split evenly between 19°C or below and 29°C or higher amid an approaching trough of low pressure noted in the Hong Kong Observatory's (HKO) latest 9-day outlook. Recent ensemble runs from GFS and ECMWF diverge sharply: bearish scenarios feature cold air advection, increased cloud cover, and northerly winds driving nocturnal cooling below climatological May norms of 24°C, while bullish paths show the trough stalling or weakening under subtropical ridging, sustaining humid southerlies and urban heat for elevated minimums. No confirmed cold surge yet, but HKO's normal-to-above-normal seasonal temperature forecast adds bimodal risk; watch daily updates and afternoon model refreshes for shifts ahead of resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$858
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in forecast models for Hong Kong's lowest temperature at the Observatory on May 19, split evenly between 19°C or below and 29°C or higher amid an approaching trough of low pressure noted in the Hong Kong Observatory's (HKO) latest 9-day outlook. Recent ensemble runs from GFS and ECMWF diverge sharply: bearish scenarios feature cold air advection, increased cloud cover, and northerly winds driving nocturnal cooling below climatological May norms of 24°C, while bullish paths show the trough stalling or weakening under subtropical ridging, sustaining humid southerlies and urban heat for elevated minimums. No confirmed cold surge yet, but HKO's normal-to-above-normal seasonal temperature forecast adds bimodal risk; watch daily updates and afternoon model refreshes for shifts ahead of resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$858
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 19?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "26°C" at 26%, followed by "24°C" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 26¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 19?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 15, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 19?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 19?" is "26°C" at 26%, meaning the market assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "24°C" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 19?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.