Recent forecast models from major agencies show Istanbul's high on May 17 likely reaching 21°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds, which explains the leading market share for that outcome amid broad trader distribution across 20–22°C. The Bosphorus marine layer and variable afternoon cloud cover introduce 1–2°C uncertainty, while historical May climatology places typical highs near 20–22°C. ECMWF and GFS runs display modest spread on exact peak timing, with no strong warming or cooling signals expected before resolution via official station data. Traders weigh these near-term variables heavily given the market's imminent close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 17?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 17?
21°C 34%
22°C 24%
20°C 19%
23°C 7.9%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
5%
20°C
19%
21°C
34%
22°C
24%
23°C
8%
24°C or higher
4%
21°C 34%
22°C 24%
20°C 19%
23°C 7.9%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
$271 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$206 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$621 Vol.
1%
17°C
$711 Vol.
1%
18°C
$1,349 Vol.
1%
19°C
$1,183 Vol.
5%
20°C
$484 Vol.
19%
21°C
$76 Vol.
34%
22°C
$354 Vol.
24%
23°C
$878 Vol.
8%
24°C or higher
$749 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast models from major agencies show Istanbul's high on May 17 likely reaching 21°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds, which explains the leading market share for that outcome amid broad trader distribution across 20–22°C. The Bosphorus marine layer and variable afternoon cloud cover introduce 1–2°C uncertainty, while historical May climatology places typical highs near 20–22°C. ECMWF and GFS runs display modest spread on exact peak timing, with no strong warming or cooling signals expected before resolution via official station data. Traders weigh these near-term variables heavily given the market's imminent close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$6,856End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast models from major agencies show Istanbul's high on May 17 likely reaching 21°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds, which explains the leading market share for that outcome amid broad trader distribution across 20–22°C. The Bosphorus marine layer and variable afternoon cloud cover introduce 1–2°C uncertainty, while historical May climatology places typical highs near 20–22°C. ECMWF and GFS runs display modest spread on exact peak timing, with no strong warming or cooling signals expected before resolution via official station data. Traders weigh these near-term variables heavily given the market's imminent close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,856End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETRecent forecast models from major agencies show Istanbul's high on May 17 likely reaching 21°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds, which explains the leading market share for that outcome amid broad trader distribution across 20–22°C. The Bosphorus marine layer and variable afternoon cloud cover introduce 1–2°C uncertainty, while historical May climatology places typical highs near 20–22°C. ECMWF and GFS runs display modest spread on exact peak timing, with no strong warming or cooling signals expected before resolution via official station data. Traders weigh these near-term variables heavily given the market's imminent close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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